G2 2016-10-14 It’s Clobberin’ Time!

Game Notes CGY vs EDM


Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan) at Calgary Flames (Head Coach: Glen Gulutzan)

NHL Game #15, Scotiabank Saddledome, 2016-10-14 07:00:00PM (GMT -0600)

Oilers 5-3

Referees: Brian Pochmara, Brad Watson
Linesmen: Ryan Gibbons, Darren Gibbs

Three Stars: Connor McDavid; Mikael Backlund; Jordan Eberle

  • Q: What’s better than an Oilers win?  A: An Oilers win over the Calgary Flames!
  • 2 and oh … feels good! Really good.  I could get used to this. I almost feel guilty deconstructing this game, but … that’s what I get paid the big bucks to do, right? … wait a minute …
  • OK, first, let’s be honest – that first period was a tire fire reminiscent of the tire fires of the past few years. Ugly. Talbot was shaky and that didn’t help either.  Thank Gord for that McDavid kid though. We’re going to be saying this A LOT over the next many years.
  • Looking once again at the invaluable gameflow diagram, the fancies were heavily in the Flames favour, but just like the first game, it was all one period … the first (duh). After that, not only was the game relatively even shots-wise, but you can see that the Oilers were considerably more dangerous, and the score reflected that I’d say.  Like last game, you can really see a clear edge in the shot distances for the Oilers.
  • From a fancystats perspective, it was the McDavid line, and it was everyone else.  Interestingly solid game from Nurse and Gryba though, but the danger metrics suggest that is perhaps something of a mirage.
  • The special teams were a whole lot better (two PPG, and so much better to get a SHG than give one up) … but the funny thing is they still didn’t look that good by eye.  Thoughts?
  • Things that are giving me nerves:
    • Puljujarvi. Not that I don’t think he’s going to be an excellent player, but other than that wicked shot, he’s not ready to play at the NHL level.  5% DFF on the night, those are Korpikoski numbers.  Oilers: you traded Taylor Hall.  You *need* JP to reach his potential. Please don’t f*** this up.
    • Nuge. Keep waiting for him to break out, but that’s two so-so games in a row (against a not very good team) – and he should be in World Cup form.
  • Kris Russell remains an interesting piece of work. I’m liking his game with McDavid – he seems to recognize he just needs to make the simple play, get the puck to Sekera or McDavid, and boom! it’s going the other way. But when he’s away from those guys, he’s a tire fire.  That really showed in the numbers in the first game, I don’t have those numbers for this game yet but I’d bet they’ll show something similar.

Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Leon Draisaitl led the way with 2 goals
  • Leon Draisaitl blasted 5 shots on goal
  • Jordan Eberle was most active on the team with 9 shot attempts
  • Leon Draisaitl was the faceoff champ at 64.7% (11-6)

Drai had really quite a decent game in some ways, despite the rough even strength shot results.

  • Milan Lucic led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 67.6% (23-11)
  • Patrick Maroon trailed the team in 5v5 on-ice shot attempts at 12.5% (2-14)
  • Kris Russell, Patrick Maroon, Darnell Nurse, Eric Gryba each thumped the other team 2 times

Goal Overview

Team Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
CGY 1 1:22 EV Backhand 16.0 1.22
EDM 1 7:45 EV Backhand 12.0 1.77
CGY 1 11:35 EV Wrist 47.0 0.30
EDM 2 5:25 PP Wrist 5.0 3.00
EDM 3 1:28 PP Wrist 17.0 1.90
EDM 3 6:47 SH Backhand 18.0 0.97
CGY 3 12:16 EV Wrist 44.0 0.35
EDM 3 18:40 EV Wrist 15.0 2.08

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots CGY 30 to 20 (60.0%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) EDM 35 to 27
Corsi CGY 50 to 35 (58.8%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi CGY 49 to 36 (57.6%)
Fenwick CGY 39 to 27 (59.1%)
Dangerous Fenwick CGY 35 to 30 (54.4%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 35 50 41.2 36 48.8 42.4 27 39 40.9 29.6 35.4 45.6
All 48 60 44.4 49.2 58.5 45.7 37 45 45.1 41.1 38.7 51.5
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Flames 5 0 12 54.8 10 9 5
Oilers 4 2 14 45.2 10 4 7

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

New chart! Shows how the players did directly comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick. Look for big discrepenacies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
McDavid 15:53 55.6 22 15 59.5 60.4 55.6 63.9
Eberle 16:39 50.0 21 15 58.3 59.3 53.8 58.7
Letestube 07:16 33.3 4 8 33.3 33.3 36.4 51.6
Nuge 13:42 37.5 8 16 33.3 34.8 36.8 30.9
Lander 04:53 42.9 4 10 28.6 29.1 40 51.1
T. Pitlick 07:02 100.0 4 11 26.7 26.5 27.3 41.9
Drai 11:51 25.0 3 11 21.4 23.7 23.1 22.7
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
M. Lucic 15:28 50.0 23 11 67.6 68.3 61.5 65.4
Poo 10:11 42.9 7 15 31.8 33.4 35.3 36.1
Kassian 10:19 50.0 6 18 25 26.6 35.3 29.6
J. Puljujarvi 06:26 33.3 1 6 14.3 14.6 14.3 5.2
Maroon 11:57 40.0 2 14 12.5 13.2 14.3 3.6
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
Klefbom 16:22 30.0 14 19 42.4 44.7 50 50.9 44.73
K. Russell 16:09 54.5 11 19 36.7 36.9 37.5 46.7 45.33
Nurse 14:09 44.4 10 13 43.5 44.5 33.3 36.5 46.64
A. Larsson 16:09 40.0 17 21 44.7 46.7 53.6 54 47.55
Seksy 14:38 41.7 10 16 38.5 38.8 34.8 43.7 50.02
Gryba 11:37 66.7 8 12 40 41.4 26.7 33.1 53.72
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
A. Larsson Klefbom 14:12 51.55 30.5 13 18 41.9 44.1 47.8 46.4
Seksy K. Russell 13:57 52.47 36.1 10 16 38.5 38.8 34.8 43.7
Nurse Gryba 11:35 53.87 37.9 7 12 36.8 37.7 21.4 22.7
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Eberle M. Lucic McDavid 12:57 20 10 66.7 67.1 59.1 63.8
T. Pitlick Lander Letestube 02:31 3 4 42.9 41.5 42.9 55.8
Kassian Poo Nuge 06:55 5 10 33.3 34.6 38.5 35.1
Maroon Drai J. Puljujarvi 04:59 1 6 14.3 14.6 14.3 5.2

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Talbot lays out to stop breakaway
Eberle ties the game at 2
Letestu scores nifty backhand
Monahan opens the scoring
Frolik goes top shelf
McDavid scores on a breakaway
Jokipakka snipes right corner
Jokipakka rips top-shelf tally
Draisaitl scores into empty net
Eberle finishes rebound for PPG
Draisaitl chips in puck for PPG
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6 thoughts on “G2 2016-10-14 It’s Clobberin’ Time!

  1. Fantastic work. The sheer volume of data is intimidating. Would love a bit more translation in what the numbers actually mean (ie. Negative Corsi bu Positive DF). Is this a fault of Corsi?

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    1. Thanks man! Do you think a video walkthrough of the page would be helpful? I’m thinking of putting that together, because it is a lot of data for sure.

      As for Corsi vs DFF (and other danger metrics like xGF), not sure ‘fault’ is quite the right word. Corsi has always been a raw count, which has advantages and disadvantages.

      It’s still the goto stat for most people because of its demonstrated high reliability and predictability, especially at the team level. At the team level, shot quality tends to wash out relative to shot volume. Not to say shot quality doesn’t matter (that’s an unfortunate historical choice of words), but rather that shot quality and shot quantity at the team level correlate heavily, so you end up needing just the (simpler) one.

      I don’t think this holds at the player level, though. I think there are players that consistently drive shot quality, either for or against or both. Larsson is a guy that shows a consistent reduction in shot quality against. And of course, McDeity has ludicrous levels of shot quality for.

      For most players, it probably doesn’t have that big a discrepancy, and you can just use old reliable Corsi. But for certain key players, that’s really where DFF seems to reflect ‘what really happened’ better.

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  2. Hey first time reading your blog, I got directed here from one of the Edmonton Journal articles where they referenced your blog. Great information. I will definitely be following your page. I would love to see a breakdown video. Keep up the good work.

    Like

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