G1 2016-10-13 Eat poo and die, Flames!

Game Notes EDM vs CGY


Calgary Flames (Head Coach: Glen Gulutzan) at Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan)

NHL Game #3, Rogers Place, 2016-10-12 08:00:00PM (GMT -0600)

Oilers 7-4

Referees: Brian Pochmara, Kyle Rehman
Linesmen: Mark Wheler, Darren Gibbs

Three Stars: Connor McDavid; Kris Russell; Mikael Backlund

  • OK, it’s a rare opening night win and equally rare win against those evil red barbarians, so the first priority is to enjoy (and possibly gloat).
  • Second, this win was All McDavid, All the Time. He won the game for the Oilers in the face of what was, at times, gross incompetence from his teammates, especially on the putrid special teams.
  • For a game where the Oilers were clearly the better 5v5 team, the shot metrics (which favour the Flames) look mysterious.  You can solve the issue by looking at the gameflow: Oilers the better team for almost the entire game, but the Flames with about 10 minutes of massive pushback in the third swung the numbers.  The shot distance also tells a story, with the Flames bloating their numbers with a lot of shots from the outside.
  • Similarly, Klefbom and Larsson were solid, but ended with poor numbers. The danger adjusted numbers tell the story: they were both positive on the night. So a lot of those outside shots probably were against the bulletproof KlefLar.  Checking the head to head, Larsson was hard matched against Johnny Cocky, so that’s a real shutdown result. That’s exactly what Larsson’s numbers in New Jersey suggested he would bring.  Keep it up!

Other notes:

  • 1 for 3 on the PK against what last year was a very average Flames powerplay, and 1 for 6 and -1 on the powerplay.  Bring that against a team that isn’t a bottom feeder, and the Oilers get eaten for lunch. This should have been a blowout.  Fix it, TMc, fix it.
  • I thought Looch was ineffective at 5v5, and a liability on the PP.  Hey, it’s his first for-realsies game with a new team, so patience is warranted. But I hope, IF it turns out he isn’t a good fit with McDavid, the Oilers don’t get stubborn.
  • Decent game from Kris Russell … however, as someone who watched the guy a lot last year, this isn’t that unusual. He does have some good games. (And it doesn’t hurt when your most common teammates were Sekera and McDavid) If you want to see why he has fans concerned (and Flames watchers happy), watch about halfway through the first period. There’s a simple breakout chance where Russell freely coughs up the puck in an incredibly dangerous place, resulting in a tire fire and multiple dangerous chances against (and I think a blocked shot or two). The problem with Russell is he has lots of games where those are the norm. Would be great if those are behind him but you’ll forgive me if I remain skeptical …

Game at a Glance

Leaderboard

  • Connor McDavid led the way with 2 goals
  • Connor McDavid blasted 6 shots on goal
  • Connor McDavid was most active on the team with 10 shot attempts

Huh, it’s almost like Connor McDavid made a big difference in this game.

  • Mark Letestu was the faceoff champ at 64.3% (9-5)
  • Jordan Eberle led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 63.6% (14-8)
  • Mark Letestu trailed the team in 5v5 on-ice shot attempts at 28.0% (7-18)
  • Milan Lucic was the big hitter with 6

Goal Overview

Team Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
EDM 1 1:10 EV Tip-In 18.0 1.01
CGY 1 1:46 EV Wrist 8.0 2.72
EDM 1 5:34 EV Snap 35.0 0.83
EDM 1 15:12 EV Backhand 9.0 2.20
CGY 2 8:26 SH Snap 34.0 0.89
CGY 2 10:51 SH Backhand 8.0 2.34
EDM 2 12:17 EV Backhand 10.0 2.06
EDM 2 14:33 EV Snap 12.0 2.62
EDM 3 9:00 PP Snap 34.0 0.89
CGY 3 11:29 PP Slap 44.0 0.60
EDM 3 18:38 EV Wrist 125.0 0.25

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots CGY 27 to 23 (54.0%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) Tied 34 to 34
Corsi CGY 44 to 36 (55.0%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi CGY 41 to 39 (51.6%)
Fenwick CGY 36 to 30 (54.5%)
Dangerous Fenwick CGY 28 to 26 (51.6%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 36 44 45 38.7 41.2 48.4 30 36 45.5 26.3 28 48.4
All 52 64 44.8 55.8 59.9 48.2 39 54 41.9 38 48.7 43.8
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Oilers 6 1 13 39.7 25 12 8
Flames 3 1 19 60.3 24 12 5

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

New chart! Shows how the players did directly comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick. Look for big discrepenacies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Eberle 13:46 77.8 15 8 65.2 68.5 70 77.3
McDavid 16:34 63.6 17 10 63 66.3 69.6 76.1
Drai 10:38 40.0 9 11 45 48.9 44.4 29.6
T. Pitlick 08:51 50.0 6 13 31.6 34.9 33.3 38.5
Nuge 09:47 66.7 5 12 29.4 31.8 18.2 17.3
Letestube 10:15 0.0 7 18 28 30.9 27.3 23.7
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
J. Puljujarvi 08:19 100.0 7 5 58.3 61.9 55.6 54
M. Lucic 13:19 77.8 12 10 54.5 58 61.1 70.5
Maroon 10:49 40.0 11 11 50 53.9 47.4 34.8
Kassian 08:08 100.0 9 10 47.4 50.3 52.9 48.4
Poo 09:57 57.1 6 13 31.6 34.2 23.1 25.3
Slappy 09:22 25.0 5 11 31.2 34.4 18.2 14.3
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
K. Russell 16:07 66.7 15 15 50 52.7 54.2 73.4 16.75
Seksy 15:40 60.0 14 11 56 59 59.1 60.6 24.13
A. Larsson 17:34 25.0 11 15 42.3 46.4 42.9 53.4 30.4
Klefbom 16:55 33.3 10 18 35.7 40.1 37.5 51.5 42.56
Davidson 07:08 100.0 9 9 50 52.3 46.2 27 63.93
Nurse 13:36 85.7 13 20 39.4 42.7 35.7 21.5 74.12
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Seksy K. Russell 12:28 13.96 41 12 9 57.1 59.8 61.1 75.6
A. Larsson Klefbom 12:32 26.81 33.8 8 9 47.1 51.8 50 62
A. Larsson Nurse 03:25 52.68 39 1 4 20 23.4 20 8.8
Nurse Davidson 06:15 72.96 26.1 9 9 50 52.3 46.2 27
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Eberle M. Lucic McDavid 10:24 12 7 63.2 66.4 68.8 82.1
Maroon Drai J. Puljujarvi 06:01 5 5 50 53.6 50 50.1
T. Pitlick Kassian Letestube 03:54 4 7 36.4 38.6 40 40.2
Slappy Poo Nuge 04:58 4 7 36.4 38.6 16.7 23.9
Kassian Poo Nuge 02:10 1 3 25 27.3 33.3 5.6
T. Pitlick Slappy Letestube 02:52 1 4 20 24.6 20 4.2

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Kassian dekes for breakaway goal
Maroon opens the scoring
Eberle’s empty-netter
Oilers icons open Rogers Place
Elliott flashes the leather
Wideman rips PPG top shelf
Puljujarvi’s first NHL goal
Joey Moss’ ceremonial puck drop
Frolik ties game with SHG
Brouwer nets breakaway for SHG
McDavid shows off moves for goal
Chiasson goes five-hole for goal
McDavid beats Elliot to grab lead
Pitlick buries wrist shot on rush
Talbot’s pair of saves
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10 thoughts on “G1 2016-10-13 Eat poo and die, Flames!

    1. Yeah, and given what we’ve seen of his style of play (he’s going to get breakaways and other crazy chances in close just because of pure speed), that shot quality advantage I’ll bet will be persistent.

      Like

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