Game Notes EDM vs STL
St. Louis Blues (Head Coach: Ken Hitchcock) at Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan)
NHL Game #60, Rogers Place, 2016-10-20 07:00:00PM (GMT -0600)
Referees: Justin StPierre, Graham Skilliter
Linesmen: Shane Heyer, Mark Shewchyk
Three Stars: Cam Talbot; Milan Lucic; Jake Allen
- Even *I* don’t care what the charts say, I’ll take a regulation win over the Blues any day of the week!
- It was a pretty dull game for the most part. One thing to remember, though, is that STL is a very very good team, especially defensively, so ‘hanging with STL’ will usually mean a lot of time playing a somewhat dull heavy game. I don’t think the Oil are anywhere near good enough yet to force them into a track meet consistently, but that third period though!
- Go Yak City! He gets a goal, the Oilers get a win, the Flames lose, life is good.
- Tarasenko is quite a terrifying player.
- Some things to look for in the fancies: the Blues had the better of all them, except for two: Dangerous Fenwick … and the score!
- That’s not a fluke, other sites show the Oilers won the chance and high danger chance battle. And the name of the two warriors who made it happen are McDavid and Lucic.
- You *have* to check out the rink map of shots against Klefbom and Larsson. Unbelievable. And they were matched against the Tarasenko line. The other two pairs? Hmmm, perhaps not so good. Seksy was good apart from a few minutes when he was feeling a little generous with the puck.
- Larsson and Klefbom were negative on the raw numbers, but positive on the danger numbers. This is a consistent thing. We saw this in Larsson’s numbers with Jersey, so I don’t think it’s a small sample fluke. (though in this game it was moreso Klefbom)
- McDavid was also negative on the raw numbers (rare), but positive on the dangers (common). It’s a thing. You can’t stop the McDavid, you can only hope to preserve at least one of your limbs when facing him.
Obligatory Russell Rant
OK, OK, no one wants to hear more about this Russell vs Analytics nonsense … but please hear me out anyway.
Good Lord, it’s bizarre watching the hardon the MSM has for Kris Russell. I assume that is because they think he is somehow “disproving analytics”.
Except it’s not at all true. If Russell were playing this well and his stats were similar to last year’s poor numbers, sure, I guess you could argue that. But that’s not the case. At all.
The reality is that Russell’s fancystats this year are right in line with the visual. They’re way better so far this year. If he was doing this well statistically while in Calgary, there would have been less trepidation about his signing amongst fancystatters.
He is in fact running at +1% or so on the CorsiRels, which is about 5% better than he was doing in Calgary.
He is running at +18% (!!) or so on the xGFRels, which is about 20% better than he was doing in Calgary.
That’s a massive change. In other words, there is no ‘disproving’ of analytics going on. The analytics are basically saying exactly what the eye is telling you. Kris Russell is playing pretty well. In fact, this is one of the best four or five games statistically he’s had in the last three years. (Not unheard of for him, but very rare).
The question now is whether you believe that in one offseason he’s really improved that remarkably – or whether he’s just on a hot streak and going to regress back to the player he was the last 200+ games.
I expect the latter, though I am cheering for the former.
Honestly, I’ve quite liked Russell’s game. Yeah, he’s still a bit of a tire fire when not with McDavid. But he seems to know his job with McDavid and Sekera is to make the simple defensive play and get it to one of those guys, and he’s been doing that well.
In theory, anyone should be able to look good playing with McDavid. But he’s doing better in that role than some others, and that has value IMO.
Russell being the player he has been this year instead of the player he has been the last three years would be a genuine help to a still not fully-baked defense, and I am cheering for him – but we’ve seen shows like this before, and they didn’t last, so you’ll forgive me if I remain skeptical that this sudden and dramatic a jump is sustainable.
Game at a Glance
- Tyler Pitlick, Milan Lucic, Connor McDavid each had 1 goal
- Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, Connor McDeity each put 4 shots on goal
- Milan Lucic was most active on the team with 9 shot attempts
- Leon Draisaitl was the faceoff champ at 77.8% (7-2)
- Anton Slepyshev led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 57.9% (11-8) – hey Anton!
- Anton Lander, Mark Letestu trailed the team in on-ice shot attempts with 5v5 CF% of 18.2 – hey Anton!
- Zack Kassian, Benoit Pouliot each thumped the other team 3 times
Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?
|Which Battle||Who Won||By How Much|
|Shots||STL||26 to 21 (55.3%)|
|Average Shot Distance Against (ft)||EDM||37 to 28|
|Corsi||STL||63 to 45 (58.3%)|
|Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi||STL||64 to 44 (59.0%)|
|Fenwick||STL||36 to 30 (54.5%)|
|Dangerous Fenwick||Tied||35 to 35 (actually, the Oil are just ahead)|
How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)
Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.
|Maroon Drai Slappy||09:20||11||8||57.9||57.5||61.5||76.2|
|Eberle Looch McDavid||14:01||21||17||55.3||54.3||52||63.7|
|Pitlick Lander Letestube||03:07||2||5||28.6||27.4||40||51.8|
|Kassian Poo Nuge||11:21||5||12||29.4||29.2||30||22.3|
Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up
Forward Lines – Shots Taken
Head to Head
NHL Media Highlights
Click the link to play the associated highlight video