G19 2015-11-18 Oilers vs Hawks – shots and chances

Commentary
  • OK, Oilers.  Bring that game – the goaltending, the disciplined defense, the drive and artistry up front, the puck pressure all over the ice, against the lesser opponents you will soon be facing – and you will turn this season around in a hurry.  Honest.  Just do it.
  • The turn north, is coming folks.  It’s slow, and it hurts to watch at times, but it’s coming.  Dress warm.
  • Man, speaking of cold – that Kane/Panarin/Anisimov line is a trio of stone cold killers.
Game at a Glance

kuzxxpdFive on five:

CF% SACF% FF% DFF% SF% Avg Dist F Avg Dist A RelDist% GF%
56.2 53.2 56.5 55.2 55.8 35.2 31.6 -10.3 60

(Note: “Danger” is my calculation of how dangerous this shot is relative to an average shot, given shot type and distance.  This is the number used in “Danger Adjusted Fenwick” below and in the chart above)

Goal Overview
Team Period Time Strength Shot Distance Danger
CHI 2  7:26  PP  Tip-In 8 2.8
CHI 2  14:41  EV  Snap 20 1.9
EDM 2  16:37  EV  Wrist 8 2.7
EDM 3  4:00  EV  Tip-In 7 3.0
CHI 3  11:44  EV  Wrist 19 1.7
EDM 3  17:14  EV  Wrist 13 2.3
CHI 4  1:08  EV  Snap 23 1.7
Shot Overview

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SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %; DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against; REB F, A – rebound shots for and against

Shot Type and Distance

New chart format showing all shots by distance superimposed over a box plot (showing the statistical range).

Even Strength / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

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 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  13 / 28.8  2 / 69.0  12 / 40.3  –  1 / 7.0  –  1 / 17.0
Against  11 / 29.7  2 / 62.0  8 / 29.9  1 / 31.0  –  1 / 5.0  –
All Situations / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

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 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  15 / 27.5  5 / 61.4  14 / 37.4  1 / 10.0  1 / 7.0  –  1 / 17.0
Against  12 / 28.9  2 / 62.0  10 / 29.1  1 / 31.0  1 / 8.0  1 / 5.0  –

New data display – showing the average distance of shot allowed and average ‘danger rating’ and Danger Fenwick rate per 60 for the defensemen and defensive pairings.  

Players

By this measure, Fayne and Klefbom let in the most dangerous chances.  Suspect they spent a lot of time against Kane & co.

Player EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
D. Nurse  20:21 22.1 34 0.94
A. Sekera  19:43 22.8 34 0.94
Klef  18:18 51.5 29.4 1.12
M. Fayne  16:47 56.8 28.9 1.14
B. Davidson  14:37 33.2 31.6 1.02
G. Reinhart  13:18 37.4 30.9 1.04

TMc left his pairings very stable tonight.  Almost no blender.

Pairing EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
A. Sekera D. Nurse  18:10 24.8 34 0.94
M. Fayne Klef  15:21 59.8 28.4 1.18
G. Reinhart B. Davidson  11:56 38.7 30.1 1.11

I drop pairings with less than 2:00 min TOI, but these are what cause the difference between the individuals and the main pairings.

Player Head to Head Charts

New chart format, adds TOI and overall shot % to each chart.  Game % at top. Note: all tables of Fenwick and Corsi, along with breakdowns of players, defensive pairings, and forward lines is now embedded in the game summary CSV downloaded at the bottom of the page.

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Data for Download

Includes the information above, plus Corsi, Fenwick, shift summaries, player times and WOWYs, data for head to head, etc. 

https://app.box.com/s/9u3js7cd25it1s1yqf5k17wv9uzqomow

 


Complete Glossary

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %

SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %

DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %

DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against (in feet, not yet adjusted for rink bias)

REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.  Uses the “4 second” rule.

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