No, not that Ryan’s Hope.
At some point in the distant past, Ryan @ Lowetide wondered what would happen if you calculated Corsi by restricting it to playoff teams only.
That seemed more fun and less challenging than watching the Kings curb-stomp the Oilers, so:
Here’s the first cut of Ryan’s stat (I was hoping to have it early in the game but I got delayed because a. dismay at game, and b. had to pause the game and go grocery shopping).
|Team||EV Corsi %||EV Corsi % (good teams only)|
For this calculation I used this list of teams as “good” teams (but can adjust and rerun with any set of teams, so feel free to suggest a different list): ANA, BOS, CBJ, CHI, DAL, DET, LA, MIN, MTL, NYI, NYR, NSH, NJ, OTT, PHI, PIT, SJ, STL, TB, WSH. They may end up being playoff teams this year, but I could not bring myself to include CGY or VAN!
Next step: Ryan’s analysis. Challenge accepted?
EDIT: April 3rd. Ryan’s first stab at assessing the data didn’t reveal much. Related question was: maybe the criteria above (20 teams) was too broad? I went back and after some mulling over playoff finalists and PresCup winners the last three years, I came up with this list of eight powerhouse teams: VAN, LAK, CHI, NYR, PIT, BOS, STL, DET (remember, this is backwards looking, hence Vancouver).
With this set, the data is as follows. Not sure if it’s any better, but at first glance, this set seems more indicative of the ‘true strength’ of the teams vs the more standard metric. Also helps to explain why BOS, DAL, and VAN are struggling to make the playoffs despite relatively gaudy metrics – they seem to pad their stats beating up on the sisters of the weak.
DET, NYI, PIT, STL, LAK, and WIN might just be dangerous (assuming they make it).
Same chart as above, but with differentials added and data bars to help visualize: