Oiler goaltending: it’s more the goalies than the defense

Yesterday, guest columnist Frjohnk dug into war-on-ice’s high/medium/low danger assessment of shots to try to get a bead on the true state of the Oiler defense and Oiler goaltending.

The Oiler D as you’d expect did not look so good, giving up a higher than average amount of dangerous shots.  But NOT the worst in the league as many assume when they look at the Oiler goaltending.

Speaking of Oiler goaltending, Frjohnk’s analysis suggested that if the Oiler defense was a tire fire, then the Oiler goaltending was a tire fire in a dumpster.   Rolling around on the deck of the Titanic.  In a hurricane.

Dead last in sv% for easy shots.

Dead last in sv% for medium shots.

Talk about soul crushing.

And the kicker – not quite dead last in difficult shots.  That’s right – the Oiler goalies were actually better relative to the league at stopping dangerous shots then they were stopping the easy ones.  Must be all the practice.

Anyway, I figured I would try and do a slightly different take on breaking down goalies using the shot categories.  Assess each one based on their performance in each category against the other goalies quantitatively.  But rather than give numbers (which quickly become meaningless) or rankings (which put too fine a grain on it, as if there is really any difference between the 1 and 2 or the 28 and 29th ranked in any category!) … I figure I’ll try and express it qualitatively.  (I tried visually but it was too damn much work to make it look good).

Not only would this put the Oiler goalie performance in perspective, but perhaps help isolate which goalies we think might be good candidates for MacT to dither on, er, I mean go after this summer.

*** Warning: take absolutely everything I post below with a grain of salt.  These are goalies, for Gord’s sake.  They’re voodoo. ***

I’ll throw charts at you first, and then, for those interested, a short discussion on how the ratings were devised.  First, for an overview, how all goalies did at EV this year:

Goaltender EV Sv% (games > 9)

See that little bar captioned 89.4 over on the left?  There’s two goalies stuck in that bar.  Their names are Fasth and Scrivens.

Using the war-on-ice data, I pulled the H/L/M difficulty sv% for each goalie, then applied an assessment based on where it fit on the distribution of how all goalies did in their category.

Here’s the list, along with a categorical description.

Name Sv% SvLSD Rating SvMSD Rating SvHSD Rating
Calvin.Pickard 95 Elite Elite Elite
Scott.Darling 94.8 Slightly above to above average Vezina Vezina
Steve.Mason 94.37 Elite Vezina Slightly above to above average
Carey.Price 94.27 Way above average Elite Way above average
Antti.Raanta 94.21 Way above average Average to slightly above Vezina
Andrew.Hammond 94.06 Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average Vezina
Keith.Kinkaid 93.7 Slightly below to below average Slightly above to above average Vezina
Craig.Anderson 93.69 Average to slightly above Elite Slightly above to above average
Pekka.Rinne 93.62 Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average Way above average
Devan.Dubnyk 93.62 Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average Way above average
Cory.Schneider 93.44 Slightly above to above average Way above average Way above average
Roberto.Luongo 93.14 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Way above average
Reto.Berra 93.12 Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average Way above average
Tuukka.Rask 93.09 Slightly above to above average Elite Average to slightly below
Petr.Mrazek 93.07 Average to slightly above Way above average Slightly above to above average
Cam.Talbot 93.04 Average to slightly below Way above average Way above average
Corey.Crawford 93.04 Elite Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average
Ondrej.Pavelec 93 Way above average Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average
Henrik.Lundqvist 92.99 Average to slightly above Way above average Average to slightly above
Braden.Holtby 92.94 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Way above average
Jonathan.Quick 92.78 Way above average Average to slightly above Slightly above to above average
Andrei.Vasilevskiy 92.75 Way below average Average to slightly above Vezina
Jonas.Hiller 92.71 Average to slightly below Way above average Way above average
Marc-Andre.Fleury 92.64 Elite Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average
Brian.Elliott 92.58 Average to slightly above Elite Average to slightly below
Michael.Hutchinson 92.56 Way above average Slightly above to above average Average to slightly above
Niklas.Svedberg 92.49 Slightly above to above average Elite Average to slightly above
Sergei.Bobrovsky 92.47 Average to slightly below Way above average Average to slightly above
Michal.Neuvirth 92.45 Way above average Average to slightly below Slightly above to above average
John.Gibson 92.42 Vezina Slightly below to below average Slightly below to below average
Jaroslav.Halak 92.26 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Way above average
Thomas.Greiss 92.21 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Way above average
Antti.Niemi 92.19 Slightly above to above average Way above average Average to slightly below
Jonathan.Bernier 92.18 Average to slightly below Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average
Jimmy.Howard 92.15 Average to slightly above Slightly above to above average Average to slightly above
Frederik.Andersen 92.09 Average to slightly below Slightly above to above average Average to slightly above
Eddie.Lack 92.08 Elite Elite Average to slightly below
Jake.Allen 92.01 Way below average Average to slightly below Elite
Ben.Bishop 91.99 Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average Average to slightly above
Semyon.Varlamov 91.85 Average to slightly below Slightly above to above average Average to slightly above
Karri.Ramo 91.85 Average to slightly below Slightly above to above average Slightly above to above average
Martin.Jones 91.57 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Average to slightly above
Jhonas.Enroth 91.51 Average to slightly below Way above average Average to slightly below
Kari.Lehtonen 91.42 Average to slightly above Average to slightly above Average to slightly above
Ryan.Miller 91.41 Slightly below to below average Way below average Way above average
Anders.Lindback 91.37 Slightly below to below average Way above average Slightly below to below average
Curtis.McElhinney 91.29 Way above average Average to slightly above Slightly below to below average
Cam.Ward 91.28 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Average to slightly below
James.Reimer 91.27 Average to slightly below Average to slightly above Slightly above to above average
Ray.Emery 91.27 Vezina Slightly below to below average Average to slightly below
Mike.Smith 91.21 Average to slightly above Average to slightly above Average to slightly below
Dustin.Tokarski 91.05 Slightly above to above average Average to slightly below Slightly below to below average
Alex.Stalock 91.03 Vezina Slightly above to above average Slightly below to below average
Robin.Lehner 90.89 Terrible Average to slightly below Average to slightly above
Darcy.Kuemper 90.72 Average to slightly below Terrible Average to slightly below
Carter.Hutton 90.56 Terrible Terrible Slightly above to above average
Anton.Khudobin 90.3 Slightly above to above average Way above average Way below average
Chad.Johnson 90.07 Slightly above to above average Average to slightly below Slightly below to below average
Ben.Scrivens 89.98 Terrible Average to slightly below Average to slightly below
Al.Montoya 89.59 Way below average Terrible Average to slightly below
Viktor.Fasth 89.58 Terrible Horrawful Slightly above to above average
Evgeni.Nabokov 89.56 Horrawful Average to slightly below Average to slightly below
Rob.Zepp 88.89 Terrible Horrawful Slightly below to below average
Justin.Peters 88.7 Way above average Terrible Terrible
Niklas.Backstrom 88.6 Average to slightly above Slightly below to below average Horrawful

Oiler goalies: not good.  Especially at the easy shots, as Frjohnk showed.

Arguments that its because they were overwhelmed by the defensive tire fire are a bit challenged by the fact that both goalies, especially Fasth, were not that bad in stopping the ‘really dangerous’ shots.  It looks to me that its mostly the goalies.

It might be the team e.g. a poisoned atmosphere, bad goalie coaching, etc.  But it’s still the goalies, not the defense.

As for the future …

Cam Talbot may indeed be the right guy to backstop a tire fire … but small samples.

Martin Jones?  No thanks.

Cory Schneider really is good.  Another reason to say:  F*** YOU CANUCKS.

Other surprises I thought: Marc-Andre Fleury has had a decent year.  Eddie Lack is like the anti-Fasth.  Ryan Miller is like the anti-Lack.  Antti Niemi might not be that bad.  Neuvirth might be good – but not great.  Between Berra and Ramo, the Flames might have kept the wrong one.  Pavelec really has had a good year – at 27, he may be hitting his stride, that’s the same age that Kipper became a good ‘un.

*** Warning: take absolutely everything I posted above with a grain of salt.  These are goalies, for Gord’s sake.  They’re voodoo. ***


How I did what I did:

  • Pulled H/M/L EV save %
  • normalize relative to mean and standard deviation
  • cut the resulting distribution into ten categories, in order of worst to best:  ‘Horrawful’, ‘Terrible’, ‘Way below average’, ‘Slightly below to below average’, ‘Average to slightly below’, ‘Average to slightly above’, ‘Slightly above to above average’, ‘Way above average’, ‘Elite’, ‘Vezina’
  • Paste as a table above
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6 thoughts on “Oiler goaltending: it’s more the goalies than the defense

  1. Good stuff. Through all my data crunching, your title of this post ” Oilers goaltending: it’s more the goalies than the defence” is spot on.

    Like

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