Is it Already Too Late for the Edmonton Oilers? You’ll be Shocked by What Happens Next!

Ha ha, you like my clickbait title?

It’s fun reading my Twitter timeline. Some have already pulled the chute on playoffs this season.

Others remain staunch defenders of Chiarelli and his offseason moves, despite some gaping roster gaps (discussed the entire off season) being exposed as reality.

Whatever your thoughts, we can agree this isn’t a good start to the season.

So what’s real? How worried should we be?

Fax ‘n’ Assumps

First, let’s take a look at some facts and make some reasonable assumptions.

1 – Fact: last seasons team had 103 pts, a 1.256 points-per-game pace.

2 – Fact: this season, the team is 3-6-1, for 0.7 points per game.

3 – Assumption: the playoff cutline will be somewhere around 95 points.

Vaguely honouring the idea that the journey of a 1,000 miles starts with a single step, let’s take a look at a few scenarios for how the season might play out based on what happens in the next 10 games.

The goal is to see how this team can make it to 95 points (anything better than that is gravy).

Scenario 1 – The Hot Streak

If the team goes 9-1:

• They’ll have 25 points, leaving 62 games to make up 68 points.
• Over the first 20 games of the season, the team will have run at 1.25 points per game. Back on track!
• Over the previous 10 games, that will be a 1.8 points per game pace.
• Over the remaining 62 games, the Oilers will need a 1.1 points per game pace, a reduction of about 37% over the previous 10.

Summary: easy as pie.

Scenario 2 – Praise sh% Regression

If the team goes 6-4:

• They’ll have 19 points, leaving 76 points to a playoff spot.
• Over the first 20 games of the season, the team will have run at 0.95 points per game.
• Over the previous 10 games, that will be a 1.2 points per game pace.
• Over the remaining 62 games, the Oilers will need a 1.23 points per game pace, just slightly above the pace of the previous 10.

Summary: doable.

Scenario 3 – Yay Mediocrity

If the team goes 5-5:

• They’ll have 17 points, leaving 78 points to a playoff spot.
• Over the first 20 games of the season, the team will have run at 0.85 points per game.
• Over the previous 10 games, that will be a 1.0 points per game pace.
• Over the remaining 62 games, the Oilers will need a 1.26 points per game pace, on track with last season, but a hefty increase of 26% over the pace of the previous 10, and a massive 48% increase over the pace of the first 20.

Summary: somewhere between ugly and fugly.

Scenario 4 – Apocalypse Now (Please)

If the team goes 3-7:

• They’ll have 13 points, leaving 82 points to a playoff spot.
• Over the first 20 games of the season, the team will have run at 0.65 points per game.
• Over the previous 10 games, that will be a 0.6 points per game pace.
• Over the remaining 62 games, the Oilers will need a 1.32 points per game pace, a massive increase of over double the pace of the first 20.

Summary: Pray. Sacrifice things. We’re in miracle territory here.

Done Like Lunch

That’s where we’re at folks. We’re not done, not nearly.

But the next 10 games are pivotal.

Go 6-4 or better and the Oilers are back on track. While that represents a frustrating drop from last season, the playoffs should be doable, and then anything can happen.

Go just 5-5 and the hill goes from pleasant to steep.

Every game and every point counts.

Repeat the 3-win scenario of the first 10 games and you can pretty much write the season off.

Your move Oilers.

It’s Go Time.