Regular Season 2016-2017 Game by Game xGF% Variability

Yesterday between periods of the Oilers-Refs er I mean Oilers-Ducks game, my buddy @WheatNOil was wondering about the game to game variability in performance of different teams.

In the case of the Oilers, we wondered if being a young team perhaps resulted in a high degree of inconsistency in performance.

This is an easy enough to thing to check, so I grabbed some data from my main man Manny at, and ran a few charts and numbers to see how wide the distribution of xGF% (expected goals) was for the Oilers (and other teams) games throughout the season.

And indeed, the Oilers were certainly on the high side (8th) in terms of inconsistency this last season. That said – some of inconsistent teams are a little surprising.  ANA is good, but has the greatest game to game variability. DAL is the most consistent, which I did not expect. LAK are middle of the pack. VAN being not just bad, but consistently bad, is not surprising.

Based on the way this shook out, at least using this particular measure, it does not appear that youth and game by game variability are highly correlated.

Since I ran this for the league anyway, I figure why not post for posterity the charts of all 30 teams – which you’ll find below.


The ranks of the teams (most volatile = 1) are as follows:

ARI 20
BOS 19
BUF 21
CAR 12
CBJ 24
CHI 15
DAL 30
DET 27
FLA 23
L.A 18
N.J 11
NSH 29
NYI 22
NYR 14
OTT 10
PIT 13
S.J 6
STL 17
T.B 28
TOR 16
VAN 25
WSH 26

All charts have the mean and std in the title, and the same x and y axis limits, so you can compare them straight across.
ANA xgf.png
ARI xgf.png
BOS xgf.png

BUF xgf.png
CAR xgf.png
CBJ xgf.png
CGY xgf.png
CHI xgf.png

COL xgf.pngDAL xgf.pngDET xgf.pngEDM xgf.pngFLA xgf.pngL.A xgf.pngMIN xgf.pngMTL xgf.pngN.J xgf.pngNSH xgf.pngNYI xgf.pngNYR xgf.pngOTT xgf.pngPHI xgf.pngPIT xgf.pngS.J xgf.pngSTL xgf.pngT.B xgf.pngTOR xgf.pngVAN xgf.pngWPG xgf.pngWSH xgf.png

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