G47 2017-01-18 Three point four seconds? That’s like a whole period in McDavid time

Game Notes EDM vs FLA


Florida Panthers (Head Coach: Tom Rowe) at Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan)

NHL Game #675, Rogers Place, 2017-01-18 07:30:00PM (GMT -0700)

Oilers 4-3 (OT)

Referees: Francis Charron, Trevor Hanson
Linesmen: Brian Mach, Kiel Murchison

Three Stars: NHL did not select; SportsNet went with McDavid, Eberle, and Russell.  The latter strikes me as recency bias, as he was good in OT but really quite poor in 5v5. Well, maybe that’s unfair – call it just OK. Klefbom and Larsson on the other hand were vastly better over the preceding 60 minutes, and it wasn’t close IMO.

  • Well, after ripping the Panthers for two early goals, the Oilers fell dead asleep and didn’t wake up until the third period.
  • But once they woke up, wooo, what a rush! Despite giving up the go ahead goal, Ebs finally pots a beauty, and then McDavid does his “I’m faster than all of you put together!” trick with four seconds left in OT.
  • And the league finally gets an Oiler goal review right!
  • Superb defensive performance by KlefLar – they played heavy time against FLA’s top two lines, and not only did they hardly give up a sniff at 5v5, but Klefbom was skating up ice all night, and had NINE shot attempts to lead the team. Seriously, I’m blown away. They put up a DFA/60 of 8.9 danger adjusted shots per hour, when 39, THIRTY NINE, is the league average. And a DFF% of 88%. Florida was basically on their heels whenever those two were on the ice. Not a single bad shift all game. A performance for the ages. Ridiculous!
  • It worked out in the end, but I’m not altogether pleased with that lucklustre effort from most of the rest of the team for a big portion of a game that represented a pretty important two points in the standings.
  • Let’s hope the malaise really is due to the flu bug as the rumours say – an effort like that might be recoverable against not-so-good teams like FLA and CGY, but they’re usually killers against top teams. Luckily we have NSH and CGY again before ANA and SJS!
  • And for craps sake, let’s hope they get this ice dialed in soon.
  • As for the fancystats, they had a funny pattern that followed the gameflow: Oilers dominated early, Cats dominated through til the end of the second, Oilers back on top by end of game.
  • Bank the two points – massive four point games against NSH and CGY coming up

Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Zack Kassian, Jordan Eberle, Mark Letestu, Connor McDavid each had 1 goal
  • Connor McDavid blasted 6 shots on goal
  • Oscar Klefbom was most active on the team with 9 shot attempts
  • Mark Letestu was the faceoff champ at 81.8% (9-2)
  • Jujhar Khaira led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 100.0% (4-0)
  • Drake Caggiula trailed the team in 5v5 on-ice shot attempts at 35.0% (7-13)
  • Adam Larsson, Milan Lucic each thumped the other team 3 times

Goal Overview

Team Scorer Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
EDM Zack Kassian 1 6:10 EV Wrist 15.0 2.08
EDM Mark Letestu 1 13:04 PP Wrist 10.0 2.53
FLA Vincent Trocheck 1 17:13 EV Wrist 20.0 1.63
FLA Michael Sgarbossa 2 18:35 PP Wrist 11.0 2.44
FLA Greg Mckegg 3 14:45 EV Wrist 18.0 1.81
EDM Jordan Eberle 3 17:01 EV Wrist 26.0 1.13
EDM Connor Mcdavid 4 4:57 OT Backhand 8.0 2.34

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots EDM 29 to 24 (54.7%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) EDM 38 to 36
Corsi EDM 51 to 46 (52.6%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi EDM 51 to 46 (52.8%)
Fenwick EDM 36 to 31 (53.7%)
Dangerous Fenwick EDM 30 to 22 (57.4%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 51 46 52.6 51 45.6 52.8 36 31 53.7 29.9 22.2 57.4
All 55 59 48.2 55.1 58.5 48.5 40 39 50.6 38.5 27.4 58.4
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Oilers 2 1 4 50 18 23 15
Panthers 2 1 4 50 25 16 12

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

Comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick: look for big discrepancies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Letestube 10:33 30.0 11 6 64.7 64.8 60 59.6
Eberle 16:13 22.2 18 15 54.5 55.2 56 45.6
Nuge 17:08 20.0 18 15 54.5 55.2 56 45.6
McDavid 18:50 61.5 15 15 50 49.4 60 69.6
Drai 18:48 61.5 14 14 50 49.4 61.1 68.6
D. Caggiula 10:07 57.1 7 13 35 35.9 28.6 20.9
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Khaira 02:45 66.7 4 0 100 100 100 100
Kassian 11:02 42.9 12 8 60 59.8 53.8 55.6
Poo 17:24 25.0 18 14 56.2 56.8 58.3 46.8
Maroon 19:09 66.7 16 14 53.3 52.9 57.9 66.8
Looch 13:22 45.5 13 15 46.4 46.8 38.9 44.8
Slappy 08:42 50.0 7 9 43.8 45.1 36.4 40.2
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
Larsson 20:02 17.6 21 10 67.7 68 69.2 84.7 9.28
Klefbom 21:28 18.8 20 11 64.5 64.6 65.4 76.5 13.14
Russell 20:36 66.7 21 23 47.7 47.9 50 50.7 31.46
Davidson 14:37 66.7 9 12 42.9 42.8 40 22.7 31.61
Seksy 18:35 66.7 22 23 48.9 49.3 50 55.6 31.64
Gryba 13:59 75.0 9 13 40.9 41.1 30.8 17.1 36.04
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Larsson Klefbom 18:26 6.84 54.4 19 8 70.4 70.5 72.7 87.7
Seksy Russell 16:42 32.34 36.5 19 21 47.5 47.7 50 54.1
Gryba Davidson 11:49 38.08 23 7 11 38.9 38.7 33.3 18.6
Russell Klefbom 02:11 49.47 31 1 2 33.3 33.3 33.3 10.3
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Kassian Khaira Letestube 02:32 3 0 100 100 100 100
Maroon Drai McDavid 17:30 14 13 51.9 51.3 61.1 68.6
Looch Kassian Letestube 03:28 6 3 66.7 66.1 60 68
Eberle Poo Nuge 14:43 18 14 56.2 56.8 58.3 46.8
Looch D. Caggiula Slappy 07:42 7 9 43.8 45.1 36.4 40.2

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Sgarbossa’s first career goal
Talbot’s great glove save
Reimer’s point-blank save
Trocheck scores on the rush
McKegg’s go-ahead goal in 3rd
Letestu scores PPG off skate
McDavid’s 100th career point
Talbot’s save on the doorstep
Eberle’s game-tying goal
Advertisements

6 thoughts on “G47 2017-01-18 Three point four seconds? That’s like a whole period in McDavid time

  1. G Mon… was going to ask this on LT’s site, but I probably won’t get a reply because WG is likely drunk at a poker table somewhere in Vegas…

    In the first Table (Goal Overview) what is the last colum labelled “Danger”? Is there a link to an explanation I’m missing?

    Cheers, bro… and miss you lots.

    –Spoiler

    Like

    1. Thanks man! The danger rating is the relative danger of that specific shot relative to the average shot. That’s the number that goes into the weighting that ultimately creates Dangerous Fenwick. There is an article that explains that in detail somewhere on my site, I don’t have a link at the moment, but if you just search for explaining dangerous Fenwick, it should come up

      Like

      1. I think I found it… Just to make sure I have this correct… so an average shot is a “1”, and the Danger rating is a multiple of that? That is, in the top table, first entry, Kassian’s goal is 2.08 times more dangerous than an average shot? Or another way… is 2.08 times more likely to score?

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s