G25 2016-12-01 Jets hit severe testubulence

Game Notes WPG vs EDM


Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan) at Winnipeg Jets (Head Coach: Paul Maurice)

NHL Game #352, MTS Centre, 2016-12-01 06:00:00PM (GMT -0700)

Oilers 6-3

Referees: Garrett Rank, Kelly Sutherland
Linesmen: Shandor Alphonso, David Brisebois

Three Stars: Leon Draisaitl; Connor McDavid; Patrik Laine

  • Once again … a goal against in the first minute. Like … what is there to say now? How do you possibly explain this??
  • Man, you can really see why Wheeler is leading that team in the shot metrics. That was an amazing sequence of keepaway from Larsson.
  • Letestu trails the team in shot metrics this year – he would have last year were Korpikoski not on the team. But he’s a monster on the PP. Maybe it’s time to just have him out as a pure special teams guy?
  • Helluva left jab there by Caligula to put Dano on his keister. I just wish it was a left hook, because then I could have said: HOOK ‘IM DANO!
  • I thought Looch had a little spring in his step tonight. Looked fast (I mean Lucic fast, not McDavid Unearthly Fast).
  • Laine … man – what a howitzer. And accurate too. Laine is Yak with crosshairs instead of bees.
  • Good for Poo to get that monkey off his back. Nuge and Ebs next please!
  • The fancies are a mixed bag tonight, but a lot of that is the legendary score effects. The key is the ‘score adjusted Corsi’ – that’s my goto stat, and it’s telling us this win was real, not fake. (Which matters in the long run, not the short run)
  • Matchups this game were primarily defensive – Trouba/Enstrom vs McDavid, Buff/Morr vs Nuge.
  • Well that was fun. Can the Oilers just play the Jets all the time? Seems like we are to them what Arizona is to us!

Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu each had 2 goals
  • Leon Draisaitl blasted 8 shots on goal
  • Leon Draisaitl was most active on the team with 10 shot attempts
  • Leon Draisaitl was the faceoff champ at 55.6% (5-4)
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 66.7% (12-6)
  • Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu trailed the team in on-ice shot attempts with 5v5 CF% of 35.3
  • Tyler Pitlick, Patrick Maroon, Drake Caggiula each thumped the other team 3 times

Goal Overview

Team Scorer Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
WPG Bryan Little 1 0:35 EV Wrist 18.0 1.81
EDM Mark Letestu 1 2:31 PP Deflected 6.0 3.13
WPG Patrik Laine 1 10:14 PP Slap 48.0 0.51
EDM Leon Draisaitl 2 0:51 PP Wrist 11.0 2.44
EDM Mark Letestu 2 5:06 PP Wrist 23.0 1.36
EDM Patrick Maroon 2 11:43 EV Wrist 42.0 0.38
WPG Patrik Laine 3 1:44 PP Slap 41.0 0.69
EDM Leon Draisaitl 3 7:13 EV Backhand 19.0 0.86
EDM Benoit Pouliot 3 7:33 EV Deflected 14.0 1.21

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots EDM 25 to 22 (53.2%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) WPG 27 to 32
Corsi WPG 41 to 40 (50.6%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi EDM 43 to 37 (54.0%)
Fenwick WPG 34 to 32 (51.5%)
Dangerous Fenwick WPG 45 to 31 (59.5%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 40 41 49.4 43.3 36.9 54 32 34 48.5 30.8 45.2 40.5
All 53 53 50 56.7 47.7 54.3 42 38 52.5 47.3 48.9 49.2
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Jets 4 2 15 60.8 11 8 11
Oilers 4 3 15 39.2 21 15 6

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

Comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick: look for big discrepancies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Nuge 13:11 50.0 12 6 66.7 71.8 66.7 47.3
Drai 11:37 66.7 11 6 64.7 66.2 66.7 78.6
McDavid 15:40 66.7 14 10 58.3 60.7 63.2 71.4
Eberle 14:13 40.0 12 13 48 53.6 52.4 34
Pitlick 12:01 62.5 9 11 45 48.6 35.7 18.9
D. Caggiula 12:56 55.6 10 14 41.7 45.5 31.2 16.2
Letestube 10:54 83.3 6 11 35.3 42.2 33.3 26.8
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Poo 12:48 40.0 10 7 58.8 63.1 62.5 38.4
Looch 12:04 66.7 11 9 55 57.9 58.8 66.5
Slappy 13:59 62.5 12 14 46.2 50.4 38.9 28
Kassian 12:34 83.3 7 11 38.9 44.9 33.3 30.7
Maroon 09:54 83.3 6 11 35.3 41.9 28.6 19.3
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
M. Benning 16:54 66.7 16 9 64 67.7 65 61.4 21.3
Nurse 17:30 70.0 13 7 65 69.2 58.8 54.1 33.26
Klefbom 15:05 62.5 13 13 50 53.6 45.5 45.6 39.78
Larsson 15:06 66.7 12 13 48 52.4 45.5 46.3 61.19
Russell 20:10 57.1 13 20 39.4 44.5 40 27.7 72.3
Seksy 18:34 57.1 13 20 39.4 44.8 42.3 28 81.11
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Klefbom M. Benning 12:12 17.21 38.3 11 5 68.8 71.9 64.3 63.1
Larsson Nurse 13:07 35.22 18 11 5 68.8 72.4 64.3 58.7
Seksy Russell 15:40 80.43 20.4 11 17 39.3 44.4 40.9 27.6
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Looch Drai McDavid 09:43 11 5 68.8 70.2 66.7 78.6
Eberle Poo Nuge 10:00 10 4 71.4 75.9 71.4 50.1
Pitlick D. Caggiula Slappy 10:59 9 9 50 54 41.7 26.6
Maroon Kassian Letestube 08:45 5 11 31.2 38.1 28.6 19.3

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Pouliot banks the tip-in
Letestu’s tip-in PPG
Letestu pots his second PPG
Hellebuyck denies McDavid
Laine nets his second PPG
Laine nets PPG on huge slap shot
Pouliot banks the tip-in
Draisaitl’s spin around backhand
Draisaitl nets PPG on the rebound
Maroon’s sharp-angle goal
Little’s nice goal from the slot
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8 thoughts on “G25 2016-12-01 Jets hit severe testubulence

  1. Sorry if I missed this before, but how can Dangerous Fenwick be higher than Fenwick for the Jets? And did the Oilers really only attempt 1 unblocked shot that wasn’t in the danger zone?

    Thanks G – this is my go to place to counter act my recency bias!

    Like

    1. You’re most welcome! DFF can be higher or lower than the raw numbers, it just tells you the balance of shots after being danger adjusted. Think of it this way: suppose both teams had 20 unblocked shot attempts: 50%. If the Oilers had 20 20 ft slap shots and the Jets 20 x 50 ft wristers, the DFF% might be 95% for the Oilers. Conversely, if it was the Oilers with the far away wristers, the DFF% might end up being 5%! So either way, the DFF tells you the balance, for good or for bad. Not sure about the 1 though, is there something specific you’re referring to?

      Like

      1. Ah…. Thanks. I definitely missed that along the way and was thinking DFF was a type of counting stat, not an adjustment.

        The “1” I was referring to was the difference between the Oilers actual Fenwick (32) and their Dangerous Fenwick (31).

        However, if I now understand this correctly, the Oilers’ DFF was almost “normal” relative to their actual unblocked shot attempts, while the Jets very high DFF (compared to their raw Fenwick) shows their unblocked shot attempts were much more dangerous (i.e. higher correlation to expected goals for)?

        Like

    1. Heh heh – yeah, Benning has been solid after that first games worth of bobbles. I heard some compare him to what Davidson was last year, and that might be a decent comparison. About some time the Oilers had some luck in that department! Let’s hope the lesson of Petry is fresh in their minds.

      Like

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