G17 2016-11-15 Those darn quacken were released again

Game Notes ANA vs EDM


Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan) at Anaheim Ducks (Head Coach: Randy Carlyle)

NHL Game #242, Honda Center, 2016-11-15 08:00:00PM (GMT -0700)

Ducks 4-1

Referees: Justin StPierre, Brad Watson
Linesmen: Shane Heyer, Vaughan Rody

Three Stars: John Gibson; Ryan Kesler; Cam Fowler

  • We didn’t get scored on in the first minute! Now let’s work on scoring first.
  • The Oil have had a boatload of chances the last three games. Every shot, even point blank wide open cages, seems to go wide, hop over the stick, hit the post, or into the goalie’s numbers. The whole damn team has turned into Nail Yakupov!

You know, one of the things I try to do here and on Twitter is provide a level, objective fact-based assessment of every game. (Sometimes I fail because I am first and foremost a fan.)

One of the things you have to try and do to make that happen is, believe it or not, ignore the score. The score in any one game is affected by all kinds of weird and wacky things. In the short term, it can and does diverge – sometimes widely – from the underlying process. All the time.

Over the long term, though, the score and the scores do tend to align strongly with the underlying process.

It’s the process that matters in the big picture. That’s what we’re trying to measure with all these stupid fancystats.

When it comes to process, the Oilers had unsustainably good sh% & chances vs shots conversion (that is to say, they were converting their poor shot rates to dangerous chances at an unsustainably high pace) early in the season. (And I went on record and said so).

Right now, as painful as this streak of losses is (and losses tend to be more painful than wins), the situation is just the opposite. The Oilers are having unsustainably bad sh% & chances vs shots conversion (that is to say, they are converting excellent shot rates to dangerous chances at an unsustainably low pace) lately. They’re missing wide open nets, multiple times a game.

Just as the good streak inevitably ended, so too will this bad streak, and probably soon. (I’m going on record in saying so).

The Oilers were nowhere near as good as the early winning streak said we were.

The Oiler are nowhere near as bad as this recent losing streak says we are.

Seriously. We’ve been through 10 years now where the underlying numbers have confirmed that this team was complete and utter sh*t.

This year, we are not sh*t! At long last! The underlying process now – even with the woeful effort in the third period in this game, and it really was abysmal – is noticeably better than it has been in the past. It is what will drive the longer term results.

BUT! Here’s the thing … all of this is at 5v5. It won’t matter for sweet tweet if the PP and the PK continue to be the tragicomedy we saw in this game.

So … please . fix . the . g*ddamn . special . teams!!!!! I mean, it was flat out embarrassing tonight.

Perhaps it’s time to give someone other than Jay Woodcroft a shot.


Notes on the fancystats:

  • The Oilers maxed out the limits on my gameflow chart!
  • All the lines weren’t bad, but they were closer to ‘Quiet’ than they were to ‘Good’. That plus crap special teams plus a soft goal = a 4-1 loss.
  • Very distinct line matchups today – McDavid vs Kesler, Nuge vs Perry/Getzlaf, Drai vs Rakell. But the defenders were not particularly hard matched. Unusual.

Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Leon Draisaitl led the way with 1 goal – woooo!
  • Anton Slepyshev, Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid each put 4 shots on goal.
  • Oscar Klefbom was most active on the team with 14 shot attempts. This has to be a script error.  FOURTEEN?
  • Jordan Eberle was the faceoff champ at 100.0% (1-0). Heh heh.
  • Eric Gryba led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 82.6% (19-4). LOLWUT?
  • Andrej Sekera, Matthew Benning trailed the team in on-ice shot attempts with 5v5 CF% of 50.0
  • Anton Slepyshev was the big hitter with 5

Goal Overview

Team Scorer Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
ANA Nick Ritchie 1 7:13 EV Wrist 15.0 2.08
ANA Cam Fowler 2 2:23 EV Snap 44.0 0.46 <- this was a killer
ANA Ryan Kesler 2 7:51 PP Tip-In 9.0 2.55
EDM Leon Draisaitl 2 18:14 EV Tip-In 10.0 2.31
ANA Antoine Vermette 3 9:00 EV Wrist 17.0 1.90

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots EDM 28 to 17 (62.2%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) EDM 37 to 26
Corsi EDM 58 to 29 (66.7%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi EDM 54 to 32 (63.1%)
Fenwick EDM 43 to 23 (65.2%)
Dangerous Fenwick EDM 50 to 27 (64.6%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 58 29 66.7 54.1 31.6 63.1 43 23 65.2 49.6 27.1 64.6
All 70 46 60.3 65.3 49.4 56.9 53 38 58.2 62.4 49.7 55.7
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Ducks 3 1 15 50.8 28 9 8
Oilers 4 0 13 49.2 29 13 2

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

Comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick: look for big discrepancies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
McDavid 17:28 72.7 21 7 75 72.6 64.7 65.8
Eberle 13:54 85.7 15 6 71.4 68.1 61.5 60.8
Drai 11:23 66.7 15 7 68.2 65.5 70 70.1
Nuge 14:51 66.7 20 10 66.7 62.7 70.8 66.2
Pitlick 07:37 50.0 8 5 61.5 58.6 60 52.6
Lander 06:31 33.3 8 5 61.5 57.9 55.6 55
Letestube 05:47 25.0 6 5 54.5 51.3 50 36.8
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Slappy 13:20 45.5 20 9 69 65 69.6 69.2
Looch 14:28 66.7 20 9 69 65.1 73.9 67.9
Maroon 15:00 83.3 14 8 63.6 60 50 49.5
Poo 10:56 50.0 12 7 63.2 59.5 64.7 66
Kassian 10:50 57.1 15 9 62.5 59.1 65 68.3
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
Gryba 14:29 41.7 19 4 82.6 80 76.5 86.7 8.7
Nurse 20:01 46.2 18 9 66.7 63.5 65 64.9 19.18
Larsson 17:22 63.6 26 10 72.2 68.9 71.9 70.1 36.97
Klefbom 16:54 60.0 28 10 73.7 70.5 72.7 68 43.67
Seksy 16:06 77.8 13 13 50 45.8 43.8 45.7 46.21
M. Benning 11:12 71.4 12 12 50 45.4 42.9 53.3 55.71
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Nurse Gryba 13:33 9.3 54.2 16 4 80 77.3 73.3 83.4
Seksy Nurse 04:18 29.3 15 0 2 0 0 0 0
Larsson Klefbom 15:17 40.83 24.8 24 9 72.7 69.6 72.4 69.9
Seksy M. Benning 10:18 58.83 38.2 11 10 52.4 47.9 41.7 48.7
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Looch Slappy Nuge 08:38 13 7 65 59.7 70.6 68.5
Pitlick Looch Nuge 04:46 7 2 77.8 77.2 83.3 66.1
Drai Kassian Poo 09:11 10 7 58.8 54.8 62.5 65.1
Slappy Lander Letestube 03:07 5 1 83.3 82.4 75 58.8
Eberle Maroon McDavid 11:33 12 6 66.7 63.1 54.5 51

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Ritchie speeds in to open scoring
Kesler cleans up rebound for PPG
Vermette converts the four-on-one
Draisaitl’s pass finds the net
Fowler’s wrister beats Talbot
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