G11 2016-11-03 Oilers get schooled in New York

Game Notes NYR vs EDM


Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan) at New York Rangers (Head Coach: Alain Vigneault)

NHL Game #148, Madison Square Garden, 2016-11-03 05:00:00PM (GMT -0600)

Rangers 5-3

Referees: Garrett Rank, Steve Kozari
Linesmen: Brian Murphy, Jonny Murray

Three Stars: Kevin Hayes; Michael Grabner; J.T. Miller

  • Do the Rangers do this thing every game where they play soft for 15 minutes of every period, then go absolutely nuts for the last five? All three periods were that way.
  • Heard some folks complaining about the reffing. I thought it was fine – we’ve lived through much worse.
  • Larsson … oh, so not a good game. Klefbom not much better.
  • Nurse … oh, such a decent game. Benning did OK other than his bobble on the losing goal. Hope he puts that behind him quickly.
  • Lots of people blaming Benning for the losing goal, but here’s how I saw it (after multiple views in slo mo!):
    1. The Rangers loft a knuckleball out of their zone. Benning tries to corral it and bobbles it with Zuccarello bearing down on him. You can blame him all you want, that’s a tough play to make. I call it a forced error (which is to my mind less of an issue than an unforced error – sometimes you have to give credit to the other team, knowwhatimean?)
    2. Now Benning’s chasing the puck that bounced past him and can’t recover it. It bounces away from Zucc to Holden, and Benning (to his credit) stays with his man as he skates to the slot
    3. Nurse attacks Holden who got the puck. Nash is in front of the net, with Lucic covering him. Again, you can call that an error on Nurse, but an error of overzealousness perhaps.
    4. The pass goes from Holden to Nash. At that point, for reasons I will never understand, Lucic simply turns and skates away from Nash. WTF??! It’s an easy wide open goal for Nash.
  • Yes, Benning bobbled a knuckleball and subsequent puck under a ferocious forecheck. Honest mistake. Nurse chased Holden when he got the puck and couldn’t stop the pass. But that wasn’t unreasonable either. Error of commission. But Lucic? Now in fairness, he’s not a defenseman. But at the same time … a little inexcusable for a supposedly defensively responsible veteran, wouldn’t you say?
  • You could argue that it was a coaching mistake to have Benning out there, and it was in retrospect, but the reality is that all of the Top 4 D were really poor that game. Maybe TMc didn’t feel he had a choice. Nurse-Benning were his best pair.
  • Eberle’s been taking a fair bit of heat for his lack of production, but Looch has really not been very impressive the last few games either, not just this game. Despite leading the team in shot metrics tonight, I thought the reason was all McDavid. Is the Looch-McDavid experiment working? Thoughts?
  • Frankly, probably a well deserved loss, and a lot of blame to go around.

Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Adam Larsson, Patrick Maroon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each had 1 goal
  • Jordan Eberle blasted 4 shots on goal
  • Connor Mcdavid was most active on the team with 6 shot attempts
  • Mark Letestu was the faceoff champ at 56.2% (9-7)
  • Milan Lucic led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 51.9% (14-13)
  • Tyler Pitlick, Anton Lander trailed the team in on-ice shot attempts with 5v5 CF% of 27.8
  • Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian each thumped the other team 3 times

Goal Overview

Team Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
EDM 1 6:36 PP Wrist 12.0 2.35
NYR 1 8:34 EV Wrist 9.0 2.63
EDM 2 10:28 EV Backhand 12.0 1.77
NYR 2 15:46 EV Wrist 10.0 2.53
EDM 3 8:49 EV Slap 60.0 0.31
NYR 3 9:31 EV Tip-In 21.0 0.88
NYR 3 18:39 EV Wrist 7.0 2.81
NYR 3 18:56 EV Wrist 155.0 0.25

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots NYR 29 to 18 (61.7%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) NYR 31 to 40
Corsi NYR 47 to 29 (61.8%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi NYR 45 to 30 (60.2%)
Fenwick NYR 37 to 26 (58.7%)
Dangerous Fenwick NYR 44 to 20 (68.4%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 29 47 38.2 30.1 45.5 39.8 26 37 41.3 20.4 44.1 31.6
All 37 54 40.7 38.4 52.3 42.3 32 43 42.7 28.8 52.2 35.5
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Rangers 3 0 8 52.2 26 12 15
Oilers 4 1 6 47.8 20 7 4

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

New chart! Shows how the players did directly comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick. Look for big discrepenacies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
McDavid 14:32 61.5 14 17 45.2 46.6 52.2 48.8
Eberle 13:32 66.7 14 17 45.2 46.7 52.2 43.9
Drai 12:07 50.0 6 10 37.5 39.8 37.5 28.4
Letestube 10:03 16.7 5 11 31.2 32.6 30.8 14.3
Nuge 11:47 62.5 4 10 28.6 29.6 33.3 15.3
Pitlick 10:00 25.0 5 13 27.8 29.3 25 10.2
Lander 10:44 14.3 5 13 27.8 29.3 26.7 10.5
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Looch 13:42 66.7 14 14 50 51.4 57.1 49.4
Pulju 11:25 50.0 6 8 42.9 44.9 46.2 40.8
Maroon 12:14 66.7 6 10 37.5 39.5 40 33.7
Poo 10:38 66.7 4 9 30.8 32.1 36.4 16.8
Kassian 11:24 66.7 4 10 28.6 29.7 33.3 16.7
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
M. Benning 13:48 60.0 8 10 44.4 46.5 50 48.9 32.17
Nurse 15:29 60.0 8 14 36.4 38.3 42.1 40.3 41.08
Russell 15:50 50.0 7 13 35 36.5 37.5 26.3 44.72
Seksy 15:05 50.0 7 13 35 36.7 35.3 24.1 50.52
Klefbom 16:24 50.0 13 20 39.4 40.9 42.3 29.6 76.46
Larsson 18:21 50.0 15 24 38.5 40 40.6 27.8 81.09
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Nurse M. Benning 13:31 32.85 34.2 8 10 44.4 46.5 50 48.9
Seksy Russell 13:39 51.87 44.3 5 12 29.4 30.8 28.6 21.7
Larsson Klefbom 15:42 79.87 25.1 12 20 37.5 38.9 40 28.6
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Eberle Looch McDavid 12:41 14 12 53.8 55.1 63.2 59
Maroon Drai Pulju 10:43 6 7 46.2 48.2 46.2 40.8
Kassian Poo Nuge 09:25 4 7 36.4 37.7 44.4 23.2
Pitlick Lander Letestube 08:28 5 10 33.3 34.8 30.8 14.3

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Hayes finishes Grabner’s feed
Lundqvist uses head to make save
Talbot denies Nash at doorstep
Grabner puts home loose puck
Lundqvist robs Puljujarvi’s break
Talbot’s amazing pad save
Maroon scores with quick hands
Miller’s empty-net tally
Larsson’s first goal with Oilers
Nash scores for late lead
Nugent-Hopkins sweeps in PPG
Lundqvist stones Lander early
Fast ties game with redirect
Advertisements

6 thoughts on “G11 2016-11-03 Oilers get schooled in New York

    1. Ha ha, I wish it was! I’m OK if the team plays well but gets beat by goaltending or bad luck, that happens. I thought the Rangers were full value for this win and the Oilers full value for the loss tonight, though.

      Like

  1. Hi G. Lucic went for the block. Didn’t work out. The Rangers made their luck but they also got some. You’re right about the Oilers game being less coherent. But it’s a long season.

    Thanks again for agreeing to discuss analytics. I’m guessing that anything I’m looking into has been looked into. I’m just trying to get a sense of whether what I’m seeing lines up with the work that’s already been done.

    First question is on “Corsi isn’t perfect but it’s the best predictor we have of future performance”. Is this still current thinking? On the Objective NHL site, the justification is built around correlation between CF% and GF% in split samples of a season’s games.

    It looks like JLikens isn’t looking at using the first 20 games to predict GF% in the last 62. Instead, he’s sampling from the full schedule and building in-out samples and looking at the correlation between the two.

    But wouldn’t that approach inflate the true correlation? If I wanted to use CF% to predict end of season standings early in the season, then I would only have the first 20 games’ results to work with. I wouldn’t be able to sample from future results.

    Has someone looked into the relationship between the first N games and the remaining games in the schedule? And is the relationship as strong as JLikens’ work shows?

    Thanks!

    Like

  2. Great well thought out comment Georges! I also thought the eye test (as far as tonight) showed Russel really struggling with the puck. For example unable to keep the puck on at the blue line or making a poor choice passing out of our zone. However the corsi for (I thought might account for russels poor performance at the offensive blue line) or the Corsi against (again what I thought may reflect the poor zone exits) don’t seem to reflect that. Any explainations G or is this just a case of eye test making these moments stand out in my mind?

    Cheers!

    Like

  3. G,

    Great work as usual!

    They really need to change the lines. I think things have been stagnant for 4 games now and need to shake things up.

    JP seemed to work well with McD in the small samples that I have seen. Nuge and Ebs have worked together well in the past and I think Drai and Looch could make beautiful music together.

    I would like to see this alignment:

    Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev
    Pitlick-Testube-Kassian

    As far as the PP goes, it is clearly lacking a threat from the point. Solutions?

    I dont see anything internal. Stauffer mentioned on Wednesday that they might be looking for offensive help. I am not sure what he was hinting at…..Would Trouba help? I believe he would, but I am not sure that he is good enough as a 2nd pairing, so he is likely not a good fit. What does the Woodmoney Dman Evaluator say?

    Who would be a good candidate that might be available?

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s