G8 2016-10-28 Oil spill Canucks on West Coast

Game Notes VAN vs EDM


Edmonton Oilers (Head Coach: Todd McLellan) at Vancouver Canucks (Head Coach: Willie Desjardins)

NHL Game #111, Rogers Arena, 2016-10-28 08:00:00PM (GMT -0600)

Oilers 2-0

Referees: Tim Peel, Tom Chmielewski
Linesmen: Kiel Murchison, Bryan Pancich

Three Stars: Cam Talbot; Ryan Miller; Connor McDavid

  • 7-1-0? Shut out the Canucks? Nobody got hurt?!?! Pinch me!
  • McDavid had a pretty mediocre game (by his standards), especially the first period. But the thing is, with his rocket skates, even a so-so game means three or four jaw dropping plays, plus one or two clear breakaways.
  • You can’t stop McDavid, you can only hope to slow him down enough to be able to actually see him as he skates by you.
  • Apart from McD, that was often quite ponderous and occasionally unwatchable hockey. Even during the frantic third.
  • Miller was the difference for the Canucks. Cam had his moments and some brilliant stops and can never argue with a shutout, but Miller always seems to play well against the Oilers. Annoying. Too bad you lost, Ryan. Suck it!
  • Still and all, with only a one goal lead, I wasn’t happy that the Oilers were getting their show run for the last six or seven minutes of the third. Too much, starting too early, for way too long. Not a winning strategy in the long run. But the good thing was, they did do a *really* effective job of defending the danger areas.
  • Speaking of which … check out the average shot distance. Seriously, check it out.
  • The gameflow chart shows a huge divergence between the ‘raw’ and the ‘danger’ curves in the third. That’s where that third period ‘keep it to the outside’ really showed. Not to mention the breakaways for!
  • Unsung heroes: Nurse and Gryba, who only let one shot through in the entire first two periods, and only three more in that frantic third period … mostly from far away. The only two defenders above breakeven on the shot metrics too. Nice game.
  • In fact, only four Oilers players above breakeven on shot metrics: Nurse, Gryba, Poo, and Nuge. Shots galore, shut down the Sedins. OUR NUGEY’S BACK EVERYONE! OUR NUGEY’S BACK!

Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Milan Lucic, Connor Mcdavid each had 1 goal
  • Zack Kassian blasted 5 shots on goal
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was most active on the team with 7 shot attempts
  • Anton Lander was the faceoff champ at 55.6% (5-4)
  • Benoit Pouliot led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 60.0% (15-10)
  • Mark Letestu trailed the team in 5v5 on-ice shot attempts at 23.5% (4-13)
  • Patrick Maroon, Darnell Nurse, Milan Lucic, Zack Kassian each thumped the other team 4 times

Goal Overview

Team Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
EDM 2 11:31 EV Wrist 17.0 1.90
EDM 3 18:40 EV Wrist 22.0 1.45

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots EDM 26 to 24 (52.0%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) EDM 41 to 29 – whoah
Corsi VAN 47 to 39 (54.7%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi VAN 44 to 42 (51.5%)
Fenwick VAN 31 to 29 (51.7%)
Dangerous Fenwick EDM 35 to 27 (56.0%)


Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 39 47 45.3 41.5 44 48.5 29 31 48.3 34.6 27.2 56
All 42 50 45.7 44.6 47 48.7 31 34 47.7 36.9 29.8 55.3
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Canucks 1 0 7 57.6 21 10 9
Oilers 1 0 7 42.4 26 5 2

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

New chart! Shows how the players did directly comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick. Look for big discrepenacies one way or the other.


Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Nuge 16:58 25.0 15 12 55.6 58.7 61.1 75
Drai 13:54 66.7 9 12 42.9 46.2 50 66.2
McDavid 19:12 33.3 12 17 41.4 44.3 43.5 42.6
Lander 09:22 23.1 7 10 41.2 44.6 41.7 49.8
Eberle 16:47 37.5 10 15 40 43 42.1 36.2
Pitlick 07:11 42.9 2 5 28.6 31.5 20 44.2
Letestube 10:41 17.6 4 13 23.5 26.5 25 35.5
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Poo 15:21 37.5 15 10 60 63.2 64.7 83.1
Kassian 15:20 33.3 14 10 58.3 61.7 68.8 76.5
Maroon 14:13 66.7 10 12 45.5 48.9 53.8 71.9
Pulju 12:20 75.0 9 11 45 47.8 42.9 62.8
Looch 16:59 60.0 10 14 41.7 44.2 42.1 42.9
Defensemen
Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
Nurse 16:12 75.0 17 12 58.6 62 70 82.5 13.7
Gryba 16:10 75.0 17 12 58.6 62 70 82.5 13.73
Russell 18:08 50.0 7 14 33.3 35.8 33.3 38.6 24.15
Seksy 18:47 41.2 7 18 28 30.4 27.8 34.9 27.15
Klefbom 20:41 15.4 15 17 46.9 50.1 45.5 46 43.51
Larsson 21:44 12.5 15 21 41.7 44.9 40 44.1 45
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Nurse Gryba 15:22 14.45 72 17 12 58.6 62 70 82.5
Seksy Russell 17:15 25.39 36.8 7 14 33.3 35.8 33.3 38.6
Larsson Klefbom 19:34 46 30.7 15 17 46.9 50.1 45.5 46
Forward Lines
Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
Kassian Poo Nuge 11:41 12 6 66.7 69.6 75 87.1
Maroon Drai Pulju 09:29 8 7 53.3 56.2 55.6 72.8
Pitlick Lander Letestube 05:57 2 5 28.6 31.5 20 44.2
Eberle Looch McDavid 14:00 9 11 45 47.5 43.8 39.1

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up



Forward Lines – Shots Taken




Head to Head




NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Talbot’s quick glove save
Talbot turns away Sutter in close
Miller robs McDavid with glove
McDavid’s speedy breakaway goal
Miller denies Kassian’s breakaway
Advertisements

6 thoughts on “G8 2016-10-28 Oil spill Canucks on West Coast

  1. It feels like Oiler are playing very well in the third period with the lead. I can’t remember the last game where they couldn’t effectively shut down the opposition in the last period of play. maybe it was hurricanes game.

    Larsson is a beast defensively. Constantly breaking up plays, keeping shots to the outside.

    This game should have been a 3-2 or a 4-3 game but I don’t think we should have lost this one. also lots of talk about Oilers being tight defensively but I do feel that we randomly give up high danger chances and this isn’t too infrequent. We just need a competent RW along the lines of Frolik and we are set at least till the deadline.

    Either way, damn happy with the win and even the next one is winnable.

    Like

    1. Damn straight! The issue with relying on having good danger metrics is that they often collapse to the raw metrics … so you’d like them both to be strong. But I will never be dissatisfied with a win. They can’t take the points away!

      Like

  2. You gotta give Kassian credit though, the reality is he was a high draft pick and has not lived up to that until maybe now? He battled his demons and has taken his 3rd chance of playing pro hockey to heart. Chia should get a ton of credit for taking a chance on this guy, he has really delivered and may be a legitimate top 6 forward.

    We wait and see.

    Like

    1. He’s been decent so far. Can flash top 6 talent for sure – not sure if he can bring it consistently enough though. The nice thing is he doesn’t need to – just needs to be a good contributor at the 3rd/4th line level and that really solidifies the bottom 6, which has been a real concern for the Oil. And those flashes of talent make for nice depth when he does have to play top 6.

      Like

  3. Great work here as it illuminates what’s going on with the Oilers’ d. Thanks for what must be an enormous amount of work each game.

    I have a question though: how can we reflect the forwards’ success/failure in getting the pick out of the zone? Over the last couple of games, it seems the forwards have regressed in their ability to gather passes from d at the half-boards and clear the zone in either controlled or uncontrolled ways. Usually this results in chaos or in quick re-entries to the Oilers’ zone. How do such plays affect the metrics you’ve devised?

    Like

    1. Thanks Oilbury! Yeah, your question is a really good one. Shot metrics show us the endpoint, but things like passes, zone exits/entries under control, are really crucial for understanding how the shot metrics ended up where they were. I don’t track them, but there are some really good tracking projects going on, including Ryan Stimson’s (@rk_stimp) passing project and Corey Sznajder’s (@shutdownline) zone entry/exit tracking project. @Wheatnoil tracks zone entries and exits and targeting for the Oiler defense. All of them publish their results (and the passing project is always looking for people to help out if you’re interested). I will be looking to try to combine that passing and zone/entry exit data with the shot metric data that I compile, but it is a non-trivial task, let me tell ya!

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s