A few days ago, I completed a project I’ve been working on for a while now – DangerFen WOWYs. That’s “without you with you” data, a very useful analytical tool.
I’m pretty sure this is the first ‘danger’ style metric that has WOWYs available, so that’s kinda cool. We may have a sh*tty team, but we’ve got state of the art tools for deconstructing the exact ways in which it is sh*tty! Exciting, right?
Now if you’ve taken a look at this data, you know that it’s an enormous bunch of numbers, and while that gives utility and flexibility for analysis, it’s not exactly easy or convenient for a layman to parse.
So I’ve put together a visualization to make this data more accessible. I’m going to explain how to read the visualization, and deconstruct it on an incredibly good player, after which you’ll get an enormous pile of graphs for every member of the team to peruse at your leisure.
Before I do that, as an aside, if you do want to work with the data yourself (or even just see what that data looks like), you can download the most recent versions from these links (all files are in CSV format):
This version of the output now includes the teammate’s position (D, C, L, etc), so you can filter down to a specific player vs specific roles (e.g. D partners) really easily.
So let’s get back to the visualizations, and start by taking a look at the graph of that incredibly good player, name starts with T and ends with aylorHall. [click the chart to embiggen]
So how do we read this?
1. Reminder that the key underlying data here is Dangerous Fenwick, which is unblocked shots, but weighted by shot type and distance. So, a 20 ft slapshot is more dangerous than a 50 ft wrist shot, so it counts more (for or against). So read it like you would a Corsi%. The higher the better. Over 60% is elite, and below 40% is approaching AHL quality.
I cut the charts off at 70% and 30%, but a few player combos exceed the limits (usually because of small sample size), and I just put a symbol at the top and the bottom to show that. Setting the chart limits wide enough to accommodate those rare instances just lowers the display resolution for most players.
2. The WOWY chart shows you how a player does with respect to 5v5 Dangerous Fenwick with his 10 most common (by 5v5 TOI) non-goalie teammates.
3. The vertical position of the black dot (“P+T”) shows you how they did together. Take a look at Taylor’s dots. Notice how he drags every single one of his teammates above 50%. This is really incredible.
4. The vertical position of the green dot (“P-T”) shows you how Taylor did without the other guy. Again, notice how Taylor is above 50% every single time.
Notice in some cases his green dot is below the black dot (meaning there’s some chemistry with that player, because they’re better together, like with Drai and Teddy), and in some cases the green dot is above the black dot (like with Sekera or Nuge), meaning Taylor’s pulling those guys up, he’s not doing as well with them as he does with others.
5. And finally, the vertical position of the brownish red dot (“T-P”) shows you how the other guy did without the player. Notice how almost every single player save Brandon Davidson is below the green and black dots, and below 50%, without Taylor Hall.
I’ll say that again: notice how every single one of his teammates save Brandon Davidson is worse off, and below 50%, without Taylor Hall, and better off and above 50% with Taylor Hall.
We may have a lot of sh*t on our team, but Taylor Hall is a legit superstar folks. 1000% legit. Don’t let anyone tell you anything different.
6. So now put all this together. By looking at the pattern across all 10 players, you should be able to get a pretty clear picture of which players are zooming their teammates, and which are being zoomed. Who’s dragged up, who’s dragged down. Who’s got chemistry and who doesn’t.
7. One note on the jumble of numbers at the bottom of each column. That tells you, in minutes, the ice time together (P+T), the ice time for the player away from his teammate (P-T), and the ice time for the teammate away from the player (T-P). It’s there for completeness, so you can get a sense of how much data is driving the numbers you’re seeing.
LOTS of really valuable information packed into this little chart. I’m fully open to suggestions for improvement, but so far I’m delighted at this first cut, and I hope you find them useful as well (I’ll be updating regularly just as I do with my player dashboards).
Now on to the rest of the team, sorted alphabetically by first name for ease of search. If you want to see the anti-Taylor Hall, check out Lauri Korpikoski’s chart.
HE’S JUST A TEENAGER AND HE’S ALREADY ACCELERATED TO LUDICROUS SPEED!
Jultz is a mixed bag, as you should expect. His defensive gaffes enrage us, but it’s important to remember he does make certain things happen, and has some good chemistry with some of the top players on the team. I’m pretty sure that’s why he’s gotten so much rope from every one of his coaches.
MY EYES! MY EYES! HOW DO I UNSEE THIS?!?
Nikita remains the wrecker of fancystats. I still have no idea how his numbers can look so good and he can look so bad on the ice.
Tough season for the Nuge, whose chart usually ought to look like Taylor Hall’s, and this year looks more like Korpikoski’s steaming pile.