I have DangerousFenwick WOWY!

No, this is not a rare and dangerous condition that occurs when you spend too much time hunched over a keyboard (although whatever that is, I have it).

No, I mean I have DangerousFenwick WOWY data.

Before I go into more detail, be warned that this is a fairly numbers-heavy topic, so if that’s not your thing, my feelings won’t be hurt if you bail … no blood, no foul!  Just like the officiating standard applied to Taylor Hall.

Otherwise, read on …

1 – What is a WOWY and why should I care?

WOWY stands for WithOut With You.

The idea is to look at pairs of players and see how they did when on the ice together, and then look at how they did individually without each other.  By doing that, you often get a clear(er) picture of which players are zooming others, and which are being zoomed.

The most common statistic for WOWY is the old reliable, on ice shot attempts, aka Corsi.

For example, we could look at Lauri Korpikoski and Matt Hendricks:

Situation TOI CF%
Korpikosi with Hendricks 267:04 42.3%
Korpikoski w/o Hendricks 259:29 41.3%
Hendricks w/o Korpikoski 257:39 48.1%

Seems pretty clear, doesn’t it? Together, they really struggle. But apart, Koriposki still stinks … while Hendricks without Korpse pops up close to breakeven.  That’s not the end-all be-all (who they play with when apart obviously makes a huge difference) … but it’s certainly a very good clue.

You can do this with any pair of players, though personally I find WOWYs indispensable when looking at defensemen, as fancystats can struggle when it comes to assessing them.  I find WOWYs are one of the fancystats tools that seem to give reasonably good results.

2 – OK, but aren’t WOWYs fairly widely available already?

Why yes. Yes they are.  I like stats.hockeyanalysis.com and the modernized version of it, puckalytics.com for pulling them.  There are others.

BUT!

Generally speaking, the only statistics available for WOWY are Goals and Corsi.

Not* the more sophisticated Score Adjusted Corsi, nor any of the danger weighted metrics like War On Ice’s Scoring/High Danger Scoring Chances, or DTMAboutHeart’s xG. Or my own DangerousFenwick for that matter.

*please do correct me if I’m wrong

Until now that is!

I now have WOWY data for my DangerousFenwick statistic, which weights all unblocked shots by the probability of their scoring (which itself is calculated from a 5-year analysis of shot probability by distance and shot type).

Does Player X get lots of shots but you suspect he’s a perimeter player? It will show clearly in the DangerFens if he is.  Similarly, a defensemen who gives up lots of dangerous close in shots will also take a hit.

As an added bonus, I’ve also calculated Score Adjusted Corsi WOWYs.

Here’s the same table as before, this time with DangerousFenwick:

Situation TOI DFF%
Korpikosi with Hendricks 267:04 41.1%
Korpikoski w/o Hendricks 259:29 38.8%
Hendricks w/o Korpikoski 257:39 47.3%

The numbers are reasonably close (as you’d usually expect them to be), but you can see the one thing that this does make clear is just how bad Korpikoski craters without Hendricks.

Signals Get Crossed and the Balance Distorted

This is my first full publication of the data, so it’s quite possible there may be some errors embedded in it still.  I have validated it against puckalytics data, and it’s generally quite close most of the time.

With a large dataset, some small differences are to be expected as we all have slightly different rules for what we include as Corsi events, and also have different techniques for calculating shared time on ice.  There’s also the minor difference of update times (if one dataset is a game ahead of the other, which I believe this dataset is right now, obviously that makes a difference).

Generally, my TOI and CF% are pretty much within a few minutes and half a percent of the puckalytics data, so I’m confident that I’m close, if not there!

The data for the Oilers is available as a CSV file (it’s a Windows zip file, with the csv and a readme file providing a glossary for the columns – link at bottom).

At some point, I may try to make this a live site like some of the others – but that’s a big undertaking and not one I want to pursue right at the moment.

Until then, I will periodically update these and make them available (other teams by request).

I hope that it proves interesting and useful.  If you try it out, please leave comments below if you find any errors, or have suggestions, questions, or comments.

Thanks, and enjoy!

G.

Download the data file here.

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8 thoughts on “I have DangerousFenwick WOWY!

  1. Ouch. Nurse has played >50 min with 18 players.

    Only 2 of them do better with him on DF% (and those two are marginally better at best).

    More evidence that he’s been in over his head over the course of the year.

    Reinhart hasn’t played enough to really have a fair comparison, but he hasn’t faired quite as poorly… then again, he hasn’t faced the toughs like Nurse did with Sekera.

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  2. Looking at all D-men WOWYs:

    Minimum 50 minutes with teammates

    Right side:
    Fayne: 3/16 do better with Fayne (Not good… really only does well with Sekera)
    Schultz: 11/17 do better (!, particularly the skilled forwards)
    Gryba: 10/21 do better (though this is skewed a bit as a lot of people he plays the most with do worse)

    Left side:
    Sekera: 12/20 do better
    Klefbom: 11/15 do better
    Davidson: 12/18 do better
    Nurse: 2/18 do better
    Reinhart: 3/7 do better

    Obviously this doesn’t take into account quality of competition… but as a quick swipe at things…
    – Schultz did better than I had anticipated… possibly because he’s being compared to a wasteland of a right side.
    – Sekera does well given his likely QoC… would be better if he didn’t spend half the year with Nurse
    – Gryba’s number is skewed upwards because a lot of players he spent 50 – 100 min with did better with him, compared to those 100+
    – Klefbom is dreamy (even the ones that did worse with him tended to be closer to the 50 minute minimum, not the ones he played the most with)
    – Davidson is holding his own nicely. Interestingly, he did not do well in limited minutes with Sekera, Klefbom and Reinhart, all fellow left-sided D. I believe he played on the right side with Sekera, but can’t quite remember. Maybe he’s a guy that doesn’t play the opposite side well, but either way, he did much better this year when paired with a righty.
    – Reinhart hasn’t played enough to make any sweeping statement

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    1. Man, that is really interesting stuff!

      Guess it clearly shows what gems we have in Klef and Davidson, and that Nurse is drowning.

      Sekera is an interesting one, because my impression is that he’s doing OK considering he’s a 2D asked to play a 1D role.

      Did you find the CSV format easier to do this kind of analysis vs the tabular screen version from the websites?

      What I find makes the soon-to-be-lamented WOI most useful to me is that I can so easily download their data as a CSV and run an analysis, and as I was toying with the WOWY data myself, I kind of thought to myself that leaving it as a CSV might actually be a feature!

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      1. Obviously the tabular screen is easier for a quick look or use from my phone. However, even with my very limited spreadsheeting skills, it’s much easier using a csv for stuff like this… even just to hide every column but the two I’m looking at. So yes, it’s definitely a feature.

        Who I find quite interesting is Fayne. His WOWYs are nearly as bad as Nurse’s. Everyone does worse with him… except Sekera. Even then, you’re basically comparing Sekera-Fayne to Sekera playing his off side with Nurse. Fayne’s corsi WOWYs are a bit better… I think it was 7/16 were better with him. He really sinks in thr Danger numbers.

        The other interesting person his Schultz. 11/17 doing better is not amazing but most of those 11 are the skilled forwards, who seem to do better with him. Mind you, when he’s not on the ice, it’s Gryba or Fayne mostly. I wonder if looking at the DFF vs DFA WOWYs would be illuminating regarding Schultz. Might indicate that with highly skilled Fs, he increases DangerFen in the offensive zone.

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