Nuge (re)ascending?

Our lil man Nuge is the subject of trade rumours right now.

I get why some think that’s a good idea – we desperately need D, and Nuge is a valuable trading chip.  And if you can get good value in return, then fine.

But given the way the league devalues Oiler players, is that even possible?

And of course, tweeted from the Ottawa analytics conference going on right now is this:

So there’s that.

And,  I have to say that far from overvaluing our own players, it is the fact that Oiler management has consistently undervalued our few good players while overvaluing other poor players that has been at the root of many of the worst mistakes of the last five years.

Ference? Nikitin? Petry? Rieder? Bueller?

Worse still, trading Nuge right now would be trading him at a market low.

He’s struggled lately by his own standards, and I’m confident in stating that as a fact.  He was looking superb up until early/mid-November, then started to slow.  Then he missed a game, and has mostly (with a brief exception) looked like a shadow of himself ever since.

But I have some good news for you. I think our lil Nuge is on the way back to health.  Take a gander at these charts (courtesy of war-on-ice.com), which show Nuge’s Corsi differential:

nuge over time jan 15 2016

and his high danger chances differential:

nuge hdsca over time jan 15 2016.png

I have annotated the day that Nuge missed because of illness.

I read a (common illness) pattern associated with the flu: get sick, have an initial recovery, then get sick again.  Honestly, it’s a thing.  It’s called ‘biphasic’, or ‘saddleback’ – look it up!

Of course, there’s an excellent chance I’m just talking out my *ss in saying that, but it’s a perfect fit to what I’ve seen by eye and on the charts above.

Nuge hasn’t been himself since getting sick.

But at least the charts are pointing towards the thought he may be feeling better.

Not a moment too soon.  It’s the Godless *spits* Flames up today.

Go Nugey! And SIUTBOTC!

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