G29 2015-12-09 Oilers vs Sharks w frickin laser beams – shot and distance data

Commentary
  • Tough game against a good team. Figures that the Sharks would be embarrassed after laying an egg against the Flames and come out snarly against the Oilers!
  • Nonetheless, despite the Sharks strong play (see Game at a Glance for visual evidence of the damage), some good games from some key Oilers, especially Hall, Drai, and Nilsson was enough to grab an OT win.
  • Four in a row! First time since 2009!

Note: shot data for this game wasn’t posted by the NHL til this morning.

Game at a Glance

I find the Dangerous Fenwick game flow kind of interesting. By the raw numbers, the Oilers got smoked. But by the weighted numbers, it was a little closer than that, and the Oil clawed all the way back to even by the late 2nd – and the score reflected it.

Then the Sharks had an absolutely vicious run in the middle of the third to put up three goals.

Finally, the Oilers pushed back (what a good sign for a shorthanded team!) and evened it up. It seems to me like the DF trace better reflects the game – but in this case, I am literally the most biased person in the world! What do you think?

CF% SACF% FF% DFF% SF% Avg Dist F Avg Dist A RelDist% GF%
41.8 41.5 40.4 44.5 41.5 29.2 29 -0.6 50
Goal Overview
Team Period Time Strength Shot Distance Danger
EDM 2  6:22  EV  Snap 32 1
S.J 3  3:56  EV  Backhand 39 0.1
EDM 3  8:21  EV  Backhand 23 0.5
S.J 3  11:07  EV  Tip-In 14 1.4
S.J 3  12:37  EV  Deflected 12 1.6
EDM 3  15:23  EV  Deflected 7 2.9
EDM 4  3:59  EV  Tip-In 9 2.5
Shots

EV  Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  2 / 28.0  1 / 58.0  8 / 36.5  5 / 16.6  –  –  1 / 7.0
Against  6 / 11.3  2 / 59.0  8 / 40.2  4 / 37.5  1 / 14.0  2 / 6.0  1 / 12.0
All  Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  4 / 23.5  1 / 58.0  8 / 36.5  5 / 16.6  1 / 9.0  –  1 / 7.0
Against  6 / 11.3  3 / 57.7  11 / 41.6  4 / 37.5  1 / 14.0  2 / 6.0  1 / 12.0
Dangerous Fenwicks and Rink Maps for Defenders

The defenders had a good game, but Nurse and Sekera gave up a lot. That’s mainly because they faced the Thornton line all night.  Tough act to contain.

Gryba and Davidson  – another solid game. Gotta say – maybe Chia saw something legit in Gryba.  If you don’t believe the DFA – check out the rink map!  He might be getting slowly better.  Maybe?

Player EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
B. Davidson  17:48 23.6 44.5 0.64
Klef  18:47 25.6 30.1 0.89
E. Gryba  15:03 27.5 43.1 0.76
J. Schultz  18:35 32.3 22.9 1.25
D. Nurse  19:40 51.6 32.7 1
A. Sekera  15:08 58.7 33.2 0.98

 

Pairing EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
D. Nurse Klef  02:12 0 44 0.01
Klef B. Davidson  02:37 4.6 51 0.08
E. Gryba B. Davidson  13:35 30.5 43.1 0.76
J. Schultz Klef  14:59 31.2 24.1 1.12
A. Sekera D. Nurse  14:07 62.9 33.2 0.98

Game Flow Charts

These charts all now use the same y axis for comparability.

Head to Head

Data for Upload

https://app.box.com/s/uu51m67abygblrt3mvitsw8g52r9gw9a

 

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4 thoughts on “G29 2015-12-09 Oilers vs Sharks w frickin laser beams – shot and distance data

  1. I’m getting concerned about Nurse’s baptism by fire as a top-2. I was thinking he would be slowly introduced playing 5/6, then 3/4 at best. But he’s in the middle, I mean, on top of things against the top lines. In addition to getting hammered against Boston and Dallas, whether Corsi% or DFF%, DTM@Heart’s recent expected Goals differential of Oilers’ defenders shows Nurse to be near the bottom. Is McLellan maybe asking too much of him?

    My expectation is that the Oilers are going to start losing these games against stronger possession teams (i.e., Nilsson won’t save them) and the Nurse/Sekera pairing will be exposed with goals against, which is what many notice. Although I do hope McLellan and crew are keeping more comprehensive metrics (with Dellows, you would hope) on how their D are doing.

    What do you think of how Nurse is being deployed?

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    1. I think you’re absolutely right. Nurse has got all kinds of talent, but he’s still pretty raw defensively, and being on the top pairing means he’s getting shelled every night.

      Sekera has pulled up his socks IMO and would be a solid #2 on the top pairing, but he’s not good enough to shelter a rookie against the other teams top lines.

      It’s classic Oilering in some ways – no depth, so you’re forced to play young guys too much too high too soon.

      Nurse on the third pairing? Great, he’ll dominate, and polish his defense. Nurse on the second pairing? Good, though there’ll be some rough spots. On the top pairing? Argh.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. The DFF seems to match my memory moreso than the CF.

    I remember all that SJS zone time from the second period, but I don’t recall being particularly nervous during that time, just annoyed by how boring the game was.

    I do remember being scared during the third period because the Oil kept giving up five bell chances.

    I’d say the CF reflects the time on attack ala EA Sports NHL, while the DFF reflects the scariest time during the game.

    Ask yourself, would you rather your team win the CF% battle and lose the DFF% ? Or visa versa?

    At this point, I’d rather win the DFF battle.

    It’s important to recognize that winning the CF% matchup will most likely equal winning the DFF% battle, but the BUF game was a great example of an exception to the rule. BUF gave up way too many HSCA and I felt like the Oilers had that game in the bag the whole way despite the CF%.

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