G17 2015-11-12 Oilers at Desert Dogs – shot and distance data

Commentary
  • Ugly game from two teams playing ugly. Coyote Ugly!  [sorry] The Oiler game was just one hell of a lot uglier.
  • Good start, finally.  Now, about the rest of the game …
  • Kind of the reverse of last night’s game … better team by the fancystats, but defensive breakdowns cost us, and their goalie was better than our goalie.
  • Taylor Hall’s a beaut, though, innee?
  • A lot of people tweeting out ‘I told ya so’ about playing goalies back to back.  I don’t believe this is valid.
    • The data shows that on a b2b, goalies sv% declines by about .25 on average (.915 to .890)…  Anders has been about that .915, so .890 would be the probabilistic expectation for tonight.
    • So Anders was not so good, but let’s be honest – the way Talbot’s been playing lately, .880 or so in his last 5 games – would he have been any better?  .880 vs .890 was the decision.
    • And TMc sees Talbot in practice, so he’s going to have a sense of which Talbot he’s going to get.  I’d bet that’s why TMc played him, and it was probably the right decision.  Claiming otherwise because of the b2b study is an incorrect use of that information IMO.
Game at a Glance
CF% SACF% FF% DFF% SF% Avg Dist F Avg Dist A RelDist% GF%
61.1 60 60 61.7 62.2 33.7 35.3 4.7 25


(Note: “Danger” is my calculation of how dangerous this shot is relative to an average shot, given shot type and distance.  This is the number used in “Danger Adjusted Fenwick” below and in the chart above)

Goal Overview

A lot of people down on Nilsson, but all of his goals but one were from 11 feet or closer.  Then again, the Oilers were a foot and a half closer on average, so …

Team Period Time Strength Shot Distance Danger
EDM 1  3:03  EV  Backhand 15 1.4
ARI 1  16:49  EV  Wrist 45 0.3
ARI 2  13:47  PP  Wrist 10 2.5
ARI 2  17:29  EV  Wrist 10 2.5
ARI 3  11:28  EV  Backhand 11 1.9
Shot Type and Distance

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %; DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against; REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.

Even Strength / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

The Rexall place shot counters don’t like to call shots ‘snap shots’, they prefer wrist shots, and boy does that show tonight!

I dropped the charts, not sure they were adding anything.

   Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  17 / 32.1  3 / 64.0  –  2 / 12.0  1 / 15.0  –  –
Against  9 / 39.6  2 / 44.5  –  3 / 16.3  –  –  –
All Situations / Shot Count and Distances (ft)
   Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  20 / 31.8  4 / 62.8  –  2 / 12.0  2 / 13.5  –  –
Against  14 / 34.9  3 / 86.3  –  4 / 15.8  –  –  –
Distance of Unblocked Shots Allowed

New data display – showing the average distance of shot allowed and average ‘danger rating’ and Danger Fenwick rate per 60 for the defensemen and defensive pairings.  

Players

Nurse had a bad game and boy does it show.  Anyone believe the Gryba number?  (It’s actually consistent with his Corsi)

Player EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
Klef  15:27 15.1 37.2 0.97
E. Gryba  16:00 15.4 39 0.82
M. Fayne  15:05 23.5 32.8 1.19
A. Sekera  15:34 27.4 31.6 0.88
B. Davidson  14:41 28.2 33.7 0.98
D. Nurse  16:39 42.9 28.1 1.09

Like last night, the pairings were pretty stable today – there were no mixed pairings with more than 2:00 of ice time.

Pairing EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
A. Sekera D. Nurse  13:55 30.6 31.6 0.88
E. Gryba B. Davidson  13:33 18.2 39 0.82
M. Fayne Klef  13:32 17.3 37.2 0.97

I drop pairings with less than 2:00 min TOI, but these are what cause the difference between the individuals and the main pairings.

Player Head to Head Charts

Note: all tables of Fenwick and Corsi, along with breakdowns of players, defensive pairings, and forward lines is now embedded in the game summary CSV downloaded at the bottom of the page.

Letestu’s best game as an Oiler, but he got nothing done on the scoresheet.

 

Data for Download

Includes the information above, plus Corsi, Fenwick, shift summaries, player times and WOWYs, data for head to head, etc. 

https://app.box.com/s/vc44cc8wvtrj7lv1b22r6bp99e19oewp


Complete Glossary

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %

SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %

DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %

DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against (in feet, not yet adjusted for rink bias)

REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.  Uses the “4 second” rule.

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