G16 2015-11-11 Oilers at Ducks – shot and distance data

Commentary

• At least the Oilers don’t quit.  Would be nice if they started the game that way.  See the chart below.
• Once again – embarrassing reffing.  When you don’t call dangerous headshots, you’ve moved from incompetent to borderline criminal.
• Thank you, Anders Nilsson!

Back to the start of the game.  You know why the Oilers won?  Because they were only down by one after that abysmal fifteen starting minutes.  Take a look at this chart snippet (clipped from hockeystats.ca):

Game at a Glance

The average Duck shot was 24% closer.  Ouch.

CF%	SACF%	FF%	DFF%	SF%	Avg Dist F	Avg Dist A	RelDist%	GF%
46.5	46.6	45	41.1	39.6	35.7	27.3	-23.5	50

(Note: “Danger” is my calculation of how dangerous this shot is relative to an average shot, given shot type and distance.  This is the number used in “Danger Adjusted Fenwick” below and in the chart above)

Goal Overview

All of ANA’s goals were crazy dangerous.  Not a softie among them.  Nilsson was incredible.

Team	Period	Time	Strength	Shot	Distance	Danger
ANA	1	10:09	PP	Backhand	8	2.3
EDM	2	4:23	PP	Slap	21	1.7
ANA	3	1:56	EV	Tip-In	9	2.5
EDM	3	5:38	EV	Slap	69	0.2
ANA	3	6:44	EV	Backhand	9	2.2
EDM	3	8:19	EV	Snap	11	2.7
EDM	4	1:16	EV	Backhand	12	1.8

Shot Type and Distance

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %; DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against; REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.

Even Strength / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

I dropped the charts, not sure they were adding anything.

	Wrist	Slap	Snap	Backhand	Tip-In	Wrap-around	Deflected
For	1 / 7.0	9 / 45.4	9 / 33.7	–	2 / 15.0	–	–
Against	5 / 24.0	14 / 38.5	6 / 23.0	2 / 10.0	4 / 12.0	1 / 8.0	–

All Situations / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

	Wrist	Slap	Snap	Backhand	Tip-In	Wrap-around	Deflected
For	1 / 7.0	12 / 42.0	11 / 34.9	1 / 12.0	2 / 15.0	–	–
Against	5 / 24.0	17 / 40.7	6 / 23.0	4 / 10.2	4 / 12.0	1 / 8.0	–

Distance of Unblocked Shots Allowed

New data display – showing the average distance of shot allowed and average ‘danger rating’ and Danger Fenwick rate per 60 for the defensemen and defensive pairings.  

Reinhart and Gryba were absolutely destroyed.  Fayne looked pretty good today, at long last.  This is the first time I’ve seen the Oilers D all having AvgDanger ratings over 1.0.

Player	EVTOI	DFA60	AvgDistA	AvgDanger
D. Nurse	19:16	40.8	29.5	1.09
Klef	19:15	44.9	33	1.03
M. Fayne	18:55	46	32.3	1.11
A. Sekera	18:09	41	30.2	1.03
G. Reinhart	15:39	98.9	27.2	1.36
E. Gryba	14:56	100.8	26.8	1.39

The pairings were pretty stable today – there were no mixed pairings with more than 2:00 of ice time.

Pairing	EVTOI	DFA60	AvgDistA	AvgDanger
A. Sekera D. Nurse	17:27	37.8	30.5	1
M. Fayne Klef	17:16	42.7	33.5	1.03
G. Reinhart E. Gryba	14:31	103.7	26.8	1.39

I dropped pairings with less than 2:00 min TOI, but these are what cause the difference between the individuals and the main pairings.

Player Head to Head Charts

Note: all tables of Fenwick and Corsi, along with breakdowns of players, defensive pairings, and forward lines is now embedded in the game summary CSV downloaded at the bottom of the page.

 

Data for Download

Includes the information above, plus Corsi, Fenwick, shift summaries, player times and WOWYs, data for head to head, etc. 

https://app.box.com/s/w4xt1lh1k0egym6gneginopnl3cmy73a

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Complete Glossary

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %

SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %

DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %

DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against (in feet, not yet adjusted for rink bias)

REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.  Uses the “4 second” rule.