Floating about the interwebs these days are charts that try to suss out which teams are riding underlying skill vs riding temporary good or bad fortune.
They do this by showing teams on a chart of 5×5 CF% (Corsi For) as the measure of skill, vs PDO (sh% + sv%) as the measure of fortune.
The idea here is that PDO is a measure of ‘fortune’ because its underlying components tend not to be very repeatable season to season. For teams, those numbers over a season tend to move strongly towards 1.0. If a particular team’s PDO is a long way from 1.0, it’s usually a sign a team is riding a wave of good or bad fortune that likely won’t last.
Just for fun, I thought I’d do the same thing for the Oilers players. So let’s start with charts of CF% vs PDO (I’ve separated defensemen and forwards, click to embiggen, all data from war-on-ice.com):
Now, although I’ve marked all the quadrants as ‘good’ and ‘lucky’, in truth, much moreso for players than for teams, it DOES NOT mean that these numbers will regress.
There are of course players who are better defensively, and they’ll tend to have a better sv% behind them. There are players who are more skilled, and they’ll tend to have a higher sh%. So in this particular case, PDO does reflect some measure of skill, and isn’t necessarily going to regress dramatically.
However, if a player has an extreme value – like Dr. Drai with his gaudy 25%+ shooting – then regression is pretty likely.
Just to mitigate some of the skill effects, we can run the same charts but with scoring chances:
I’ll leave it at that. The charts aren’t intended to be taken too seriously, and I wouldn’t read too much into them … other than to say I think that the poor performance of the third and fourth lines is reflected on these charts, and is a problem, and the team needs to address it somehow.