G12 2015-10-31 Oilers vs Flames – shot and distance data

NEW! Head to head charts for Corsi, Danger Adjusted Fenwick, and Time On Ice.  Also experimenting with showing ‘average unblocked shot distance allowed’ for defensemen (individuals and pairs).

Commentary
  • To be outworked by a lousy team playing 5 in 7 is beyond pathetic.  Just look at the chart below.  The Flames were the better team from start to finish.  That is horrifying.  Hang your heads in shame.
  • Andrew Ference cannot play another game for the Oilers.  Cannot.  Sitting Fayne for Ference is something that TMc has to wear.
  • Cam Scrivens.  You know, I wrote in my goalie articles during the summer that Talbot would be elite, but I was worried about the ‘starters dip’ that chewed up Dubnyk and Scrivens.  I thought after his really strong start to the season that we’d be OK. Man, I’m really worried again.  That was terrible, even before the horrendous last goal.
  • Is there a professional sport out there with worse reffing than the NHL?  (I’m including the NBA and the NFL)
Game at a Glance

S20152016-G163-PbP EV Summary

CF% SACF% FF% DFF% SF% Avg Dist F Avg Dist A RelDist%
47.1 42.1 40 37.7 40 34.6 33.2 -4.0
Goal Overview

(Note: “Danger” is my calculation of how dangerous this shot is relative to an average shot, given shot type and distance.  This is the number used in “Danger Adjusted Fenwick” below and in the chart above)

The last goal is clearly an example where using just the distance does not always give an adequate reflection of the actual shot.  The danger rating should be, what, 0.01?

Team Period Time Strength Shot Distance Danger
CGY 1  1:58  EV  Tip-In 30 0.6
CGY 1  11:34  EV  Wrist 26 1.1
EDM 1  13:15  EV  Deflected 10 2.1
CGY 1  17:27  EV  Deflected 30 0.8
EDM 2  10:38  PP  Slap 50 0.5
CGY 2  16:30  PP  Snap 41 0.6
EDM 3  0:48  PP  Snap 24 1.6
EDM 3  6:40  EV  Wrist 28 1.0
CGY 3  19:51  EV  Wrist 26 1.1
Shot Type and Distance

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %; DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against; REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.

The average CGY shot was from 33 ft away, while the Oilers shots averaged 35 ft away – the Flames were 4% closer.  Again, not acceptable, and an absolutely pathetic effort by the Oilers.  The histograms below show the breakdown by distance range.

S20152016-G163-PbPShot Histogram(5v5)

S20152016-G163-PbPShot Histogram(All)

Even Strength / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

S20152016-G163-PbP  Type vs Dist  (5v5)

 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  3 / 16.7  –  10 / 44.6  2 / 24.0  –  –  1 / 10.0
Against  7 / 35.3  –  10 / 40.8  2 / 22.0  3 / 19.3  1 / 9.0  1 / 30.0
All Situations / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

S20152016-G163-PbP  Type vs Dist  (All)

 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  5 / 13.6  2 / 48.5  13 / 44.4  2 / 24.0  –  –  1 / 10.0
Against  8 / 32.9  1 / 50.0  15 / 41.1  2 / 22.0  4 / 16.2  1 / 9.0  1 / 30.0
Distance of Unblocked Shots Allowed

I’m trying out a new data display – showing the average distance of shot allowed and average ‘danger rating’ and Danger Fenwick rate per 60 for the defensemen and defensive pairings.  

The DFA/60 clearly shows Ference and Gryba in their own area code of badness – though I’m a bit surprised to see how far ‘Anton Sekera’ went to try and match them.

Player Reg TOI EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
Klef  23:56  17:16 15.3 36.7 0.63
B. Davidson  20:13  17:26 17.2 35.9 0.63
D. Nurse  18:27  17:58 38.7 31.6 0.96
A. Sekera  22:40  16:26 42.4 31.6 0.96
Ference  14:34  12:49 45.9 32.4 0.89
E. Gryba  13:24  12:01 46.4 32.6 0.93

I dropped pairings with less than 2:00 min TOI.

Pairing Reg TOI EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA AvgDanger
Klef B. Davidson  17:25  14:57 17.7 36.7 0.63
A. Sekera D. Nurse  15:53  15:24 45.2 31.6 0.96
Ference E. Gryba  11:32  11:19 49.3 32.6 0.93
Player Head to Head Charts

Note: all of the previous tables of Fenwick and Corsi, along with breakdowns of players, defensive pairings, and forward lines is now embedded in the game summary CSV downloaded at the bottom of the page.   Instead, I’ll simply be publishing the head to head time, Corsi, and Danger Fenwick charts.

S20152016-G163-PbP CF Head to Head

S20152016-G163-PbP DFF Head to Head

S20152016-G163-PbP TOI Head to Head

Data for Download

Includes the information above, plus Corsi, Fenwick, shift summaries, player times and WOWYs, data for head to head, etc. 

https://app.box.com/s/ijra26cecvh0zo4jflorxmqguf6jgu6b


Complete Glossary

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %

SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %

DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %

DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against (in feet, not yet adjusted for rink bias)

REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.  Uses the “4 second” rule.

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