G7 2015-10-21 Oilers vs Red Wings – shot and distance data

I’ll be publishing these after most games, and will continue to refine the format and presentation.  Let me know if you find any errors, this is very much still in development.  Feedback and suggestions also welcome.

Comments:

  • Holy crap, McDavid!
  • Yak Attack!
  • HOLY SH*T CAM TALBOT!

On a more serious note, the Oilers outshot the Wings, but were out Corsi’d.  Normally this would be concern, but check out the “Danger” and distance ratings below.  The Oilers may have been outshot, and Talbot did have a great game … but the Oilers had (by quite a significant margin) the closer and more dangerous chances.  A hard-earned and well-deserved win, the first regulation win in Edmonton against the Winged Wheel since 2009.

Game at a Glance

S20152016-G90-PbP EV Summary

Goal Overview

(Note: “Danger” is my calculation of how dangerous this shot is relative to an average shot, given shot type and distance.  This is the number used in “Danger Adjusted Fenwick” below)

Team Period Time Strength Shot Distance Danger
EDM 1  12:32  PP  Tip-In 9 2.5
EDM 2  6:34  EV  Wrist 6 2.9
EDM 2  7:04  EV  Wrist 6 2.9
DET 3  6:49  EV  Backhand 16* 1.2*

* By the way, this is a good time to point out that you have to take the NHL shot location and distance data with a grain of salt.  No way was that a 16 ft backhand.  1.6 foot maybe!  If you assume it was around 2 or 3 feet, the “Danger Rating” jumps to 3.0.

Shot Analysis

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %; DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against; REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.

S20152016-G90-PbPShot Histogram(All) S20152016-G90-PbPShot Histogram(5v5)
SF SA SF% DIST F DIST A REB F REB A
EV 22 19 53.7 32.1 33.1 2 1
All 28 29 49.1 33.4 37.3 2 1
Even Strength / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

(Note: not yet adjusted for rink bias)

S20152016-G90-PbP Type vs Dist (5v5)

 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  12 / 28.2  4 / 54.5  3 / 44.3  1 / 5.0  –  –  2 / 6.0
Against  10 / 34.4  2 / 61.5  3 / 38.0  1 / 16.0  –  1 / 8.0  2 / 11.5
All Situations / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

S20152016-G90-PbP Type vs Dist (All)

 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  15 / 29.8  4 / 54.5  5 / 48.8  1 / 5.0  1 / 9.0  –  2 / 6.0
Against  12 / 34.4  5 / 56.8  7 / 45.3  2 / 18.0  –  1 / 8.0  2 / 11.5
Unblocked Shot Attempts (Fenwick)

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %; DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 28 31 47.5 34.1 26.6 56.2
All 35 46 43.2 41.3 34.6 54.4
Shot Attempts (Corsi)
CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF%
EV 35 43 44.9 38.8 39.7 49.4
All 43 70 38.1 46.9 65.6 41.7
Player Summary
Player Shift Summary
Name # Average Longest
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 29  00:46  01:29
Justin Schultz 28  00:52  01:38
Andrej Sekera 26  00:46  01:10
Mark Fayne 26  00:42  01:01
Oscar Klefbom 25  00:50  01:31
Anton Lander 25  00:42  01:06
Taylor Hall 24  00:49  01:43
Lauri Korpikoski 24  00:39  01:13
Connor Mcdavid 23  00:41  01:08
Benoit Pouliot 22  00:36  00:58
Teddy Purcell 22  00:42  01:08
Eric Gryba 22  00:48  02:15
Nail Yakupov 21  00:36  00:58
Andrew Ference 21  00:43  01:16
Mark Letestu 21  00:39  01:43
Rob Klinkhammer 18  00:45  01:43
Andrew Miller 11  00:46  01:31
Anton Slepyshev 7  00:38  01:22
Total 5v5 TOI  43:29

Apologies for these crunched tables, I have to figure out how to get WordPress to properly format large tables.

Individual Players

(There are two ways of calculating OZS, DZ+OZ, or OZ+NZ+DZ.  I give both, with “OSZ%2” meaning DZ+OZ.  WOWY CF% and SACF% are Corsi and Score Adjusted Corsi when that player is not on the ice. Reg TOI is Regulation TOI, EVTOI is 5v5 TOI)

Player Reg TOI EVTOI OZS%3 OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
Schultz  24:14  15:05 23.1 33.3 8 12 40.0 45.5 46.6 50.8
Nuge  22:20  15:42 46.7 77.8 12 11 52.2 57.6 41.8 45.9
Dreamy  20:50  14:19 23.1 33.3 12 9 57.1 62.6 40.4 44.4
Sekera  20:01  15:05 15.8 50.0 11 17 39.3 43.6 48.0 52.7
Chance  19:35  16:16 46.7 77.8 13 11 54.2 59.3 40.7 44.9
Fayne  18:19  14:52 15.8 50.0 14 17 45.2 49.8 44.7 49.1
Gryba  17:36  15:10 27.3 100.0 13 17 43.3 47.1 45.8 50.9
Lander  17:25  11:18 7.1 25.0 6 15 28.6 32.2 50.9 55.5
Korpi  15:42  10:44 6.2 20.0 7 13 35.0 38.9 48.3 53.0
McSuper!  15:36  12:09 10.0 25.0 14 12 53.8 57.6 40.4 45.3
Purcell  15:16  11:44 7.1 25.0 6 17 26.1 29.6 52.7 57.3
tcaf  15:00  12:40 27.3 100.0 12 14 46.2 50.0 44.2 49.2
Letestu  13:40  06:53 0.0 0.0 8 9 47.1 52.3 44.3 48.6
Klink  13:35  11:26 30.0 75.0 10 14 41.7 47.3 46.3 50.4
Poo  13:17  10:51 11.1 33.3 14 8 63.6 67.0 37.5 42.3
Yak  12:45  10:40 11.1 33.3 11 10 52.4 55.7 42.1 47.2
Miller  08:28  08:10 57.1 80.0 1 2 33.3 38.7 45.3 49.9
Slappy  04:23  04:23 0.0  – 4 6 40.0 44.4 45.6 50.1
Defense Pairings
Pairing Reg TOI EVTOI OZS%3 OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
Schultz Dreamy  19:22  13:09 23.1 33.3 8 9 47.1 52.6 44.3 48.5
Sekera Fayne  17:29  14:02 15.8 50.0 11 17 39.3 43.6 48.0 52.7
tcaf Gryba  14:51  12:31 27.3 100.0 12 14 46.2 50.0 44.2 49.2
Schultz Gryba  01:36  01:36  –  – 0 3 0.0 0.0 46.7 51.3
Gryba Dreamy  00:48  00:42  –  – 1 0 100.0 100.0 44.2 48.7
Fayne Dreamy  00:41  00:41  –  – 3 0 100.0 100.0 42.7 47.1
Forward Line Combinations
Line Combo Reg TOI EVTOI OZS%3 OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
Yak Poo McSuper!  10:51  09:39               13                 50 11 8 57.9 61.1 40.7 45.7
Purcell Korpi Lander  08:59  08:59                 8                 33 5 13 27.8 31.2 50.0 54.7
Chance Miller Nuge  07:00  06:42               67               100 1 1 50.0 54.5 44.7 49.3
Chance Klink Nuge  05:55  05:55               50               100 6 8 42.9 48.9 45.3 49.5
Klink Slappy Letestu  04:09  04:09                –   – 3 5 37.5 41.8 45.7 50.3
Letestu Poo McSuper!  01:29  00:17                –                  – 1 0 100.0 100.0 44.2 48.7
Purcell Lander Letestu  00:57  00:57                –                  – 1 1 50.0 57.1 44.7 49.3
Chance Korpi Nuge  00:47  00:47                –                  – 2 0 100.0 100.0 43.4 48.0
Chance Letestu Nuge  00:35  00:35   –   – 3 0 100.0 100.0 42.7 47.1
Chance Yak McSuper!  00:32  00:21   –   – 1 0 100.0 100.0 44.2 48.8
Klink Letestu Miller  00:28  00:28                –                  – 0 1 0.0 0.0 45.5 50.0
Chance Yak Nuge  00:23  00:23   –   – 0 1 0.0 0.0 45.5 50.0
Purcell Lander McSuper!  00:16  00:16   –   – 0 1 0.0 0.0 45.5 50.0
Purcell Letestu McSuper!  00:12  00:12   –   – 0 2 0.0 0.0 46.1 50.6
Klink Poo McSuper!  00:09  00:09   –   – 1 0 100.0 100.0 44.2 48.7
Slappy Poo McSuper!  00:07  00:07   –   – 1 0 100.0 100.0 44.2 48.7
Chance Slappy Nuge  00:04  00:04   –   – 0 1 0.0 0.0 45.5 50.1

Complete Glossary

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %

SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %

DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %

DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against (in feet, not yet adjusted for rink bias)

REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.  Uses the “4 second” rule.

If you want to analyze or otherwise use any of the numbers I’ve given here, you should be able to copy any of the tables and paste them into Excel and that should work fine.

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