G5 2015-10-17 Oilers at Flames – shot and distance data

I’ll be publishing these after most games, and will continue to refine the format and presentation.

I’ve added shot metrics and WOWYs for individual players, defensive pairings, and forward lines.  Maybe at some point I’ll add five-man units.

The DFF% metric is my own, and I’ll be explaining that soon  Essentially, it is Fenwick adjusted for shot type and distance = “Danger Adjusted Fenwick For”, or DFF.  Glossary at bottom.

I won’t add much commentary to these numbers, other than to say that the numbers confirm Edmonton’s dominance at 5v5, but the shot distance suggests that the Flames powerplay was arguably more dangerous.

Let me know if you find any errors, this is very much still in development.  Feedback and suggestions also welcome.

Shot Attempts (Corsi)

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %; SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF%
EV 45 37 54.9 49.4 33.5 59.6
All 63 53 54.3 68.9 47.8 59.0
Unblocked Shot Attempts (Fenwick)

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %; DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 30 24 55.6 23.1 15.1 60.5
All 43 34 55.8 37.1 25.4 59.4
Shot Analysis

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %; DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against; REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.

SF SA SF% DIST F DIST A REB F REB A
EV 22 16 57.9 35.8 38.5 1 0
All 28 24 53.8 36.7 36.6 1 0
Even Strength / Shot Count and Distances (ft)

(Note: not yet adjusted for rink bias)

 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  10 / 32.2  6 / 52.5  4 / 31.8  –  2 / 12.0  –  –
Against  11 / 39.4  2 / 66.0  –  1 / 23.0  2 / 14.0  –  –
All Situations / Shot Count and Distances (ft)
 Wrist Slap Snap Backhand Tip-In Wrap-around Deflected
For  13 / 33.3  8 / 50.2  5 / 33.6  –  2 / 12.0  –  –
Against  17 / 36.7  3 / 59.0  –  1 / 23.0  3 / 18.0  –  –
Goal Overview

(Note: “Danger” is my calculation of how dangerous this shot is relative to an average shot, given shot type and distance.  This is the number used in “Danger Adjusted Fenwick” above)

Team Period Time Strength Shot Distance Danger
EDM 1  12:59  EV  Snap 27 1.4
CGY 2  5:07  EV  Tip-In 10 2.3
EDM 2  16:31  EV  Wrist 38 0.5
EDM 3  0:25  EV  Tip-In 13 1.6
EDM 3  2:59  EV  Wrist 20 1.6
CGY 3  10:14  PP  Wrist 25 1.2
EDM 3  16:20  PP  Wrist 10 2.5
Player Summary

(WOWY CF% and SACF% are Corsi and Score Adjusted Corsi when that player is not on the ice.)

Individual Players
Player CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
Chance 63.9 68.4 47.8 52.6
Dreamy 59.1 63.3 53.3 58.4
Fayne 70.4 74.3 47.3 52.1
Gazdic 60.0 66.0 54.5 59.1
Gryba 40.0 44.9 66.0 70.0
Hendrix 71.4 74.9 42.6 48.0
Klink 50.0 54.4 55.4 60.1
Korpi 30.0 34.2 62.9 67.3
Lander 27.8 32.4 62.5 66.9
Letestu 21.4 26.3 61.8 65.9
McAwesome! 76.5 79.7 49.2 54.0
Nuge 57.9 62.3 52.3 57.3
Poo 63.2 66.8 52.4 57.3
Purcell 37.5 43.1 59.1 63.5
Reinhart 39.4 44.4 65.3 69.4
Schultz 60.0 64.4 53.2 58.1
Sekera 70.4 74.4 47.3 52.0
Yak 65.0 68.9 51.6 56.5
Defensive Pairings

CF, CA are the raw counts of shot attempts for and against; until I add TOI, this will give you an idea of how ‘busy’ that pair is.

Pairing CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
Sekera Fayne 17 13 56.7 62.3 53.5 58
Schultz Dreamy 13 13 50.0 55.2 55.6 60.2
Reinhart Gryba 11 21 34.4 39.2 61.9 66.2
Sekera Gryba 3 1 75 77.3 53.6 58.3
Sekera Schultz 2 0 100 100 53.5 58.2
Fayne Reinhart 2 0 100.0 100.0 53.5 58.3
Gryba Dreamy 1 0 100.0 100.0 53.9 58.7
Fayne Gryba 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.6
Reinhart Dreamy 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.6
Forward Line Combinations
Line Combo CF CA CF% SACF% WOWY CF% WOWY SACF%
Chance Hendrix Nuge 22 9 71.0 74.6 48.2 53.1
Yak Poo McAwesome! 12 4 75.0 77.8 51.0 55.9
Chance Lander Nuge 8 2 80.0 82.7 51.9 56.7
Chance Purcell Nuge 6 2 75.0 78.8 52.8 57.6
Purcell Korpi Lander 4 8 33.3 38.5 56.7 61.4
Yak Letestu Poo 2 2 50.0 53.8 54.5 59.2
Klink Gazdic Letestu 2 1 66.7 73.3 54.0 58.7
Chance Yak McAwesome! 2 0 100.0 100.0 53.5 58.2
Klink Hendrix Korpi 2 0 100.0 100.0 53.5 58.3
Letestu Poo McAwesome! 2 0 100.0 100.0 53.5 58.3
Chance Letestu Nuge 1 3 25.0 27.8 55.4 60.1
Chance Nuge McAwesome! 1 0 100.0 100.0 53.9 58.6
Yak Hendrix Poo 1 0 100.0 100.0 53.9 58.7
Purcell Gazdic Letestu 1 0 100.0 100.0 53.9 58.6
Purcell Lander Poo 1 0 100.0 100.0 53.9 58.6
Hendrix Nuge McAwesome! 1 0 100.0 100.0 53.9 58.6
Klink Korpi Letestu 0 2 0.0 0.0 55.3 60.0
Korpi Lander Letestu 0 2 0.0 0.0 55.3 60.0
Yak Poo Nuge 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.6
Klink Korpi Lander 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.6
Purcell Gazdic Lander 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.6
Hendrix Lander Nuge 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.5
Korpi Letestu Nuge 0 1 0.0 0.0 54.8 59.5
Complete Glossary

CF, CA, CF% – Corsi For, Against, %

SACF, SACA, SACF% – Scored Adjusted Corsi For, Against, %

FF, FA, FF% – Fenwick For, Against, %

DFF, DFA, DFF% – Danger (shot type and distance) Adjusted Fenwick For, Against, %

SA, SF, SF% – Shots For, Against, %

DIST F, A – Average shot distance for and against (in feet, not yet adjusted for rink bias)

REB F, A – rebound shots for and against.  Uses the “4 second” rule.

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