GUEST COLUMNIST: SwedishPoster’s team-by-team review of the draft (Part 4)

Part 4 of a four part series.  Feel free to review part 1, part 2, and part 3 for a refresher on the full picture.


For the final section of my draft overview, I’ll go through each team and see how they did in terms of bad, ok, good and great bets in the draft.  Ideally you want no bad bets, not too many just ok bets but a couple is fine since there might be a great scouting report and ofc as many good/great bets as possible.

As a reminder, the assessment of what are good, bad, and ok bets is based on my draft analysis and rules.  For brevity, the points below are summaries by each team for each round (Ed note: for completeness, I’ve added the players drafted by each team, courtesy of the excellent draft database at hockeydb; the links in the tables below take you to the specific team or player at the site).

TEAM BY TEAM

ANAHEIM

1 27 Anaheim Jacob Larsson D Frolunda Jrs. (Sweden)
2 59 Anaheim Julius Nattinen C Jyp Jrs (Finland)
3 80 Anaheim Brent Gates C Green Bay Gamblers [USHL]
3 84 Anaheim Deven Sideroff R Kamloops Blazers [WHL]
5 148 Anaheim Troy Terry C U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
6 178 Anaheim Steven Ruggiero D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
6 179 Anaheim Garrett Metcalf G Madison Capitols [USHL]

1st rd; one good to great D bet. 2nd rd; one good fwd bet. 3rd rd; one bad fwd bet and one good D bet. 5th rd: one ok to good fwd bet. 6th rd; one bad D bet and one ok goalie bet.

Looks like an ok draft, a couple of wasted picks but did well in the higher rounds where it’s the most crucial.

ARIZONA

1 3 Arizona Dylan Strome C Erie Otters [OHL]
1 30 Arizona Nick Merkley R Kelowna Rockets [WHL]
2 32 Arizona Christian Fischer R U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
3 63 Arizona Kyle Capobianco D Sudbury Wolves [OHL]
3 76 Arizona Adin Hill G Portland Winterhawks [WHL]
3 81 Arizona Brendan Warren L U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
3 83 Arizona Jens Looke R Brynas IF Gavle [SweHL]
5 123 Arizona Conor Garland R Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL]
7 183 Arizona Erik Kallgren G Linkoping Jrs (Sweden)

1st rd; one great fwd bet and one good fwd bet with some red flags. 2nd rd: One good fwd bet. 3rd rd; one good D bet, one good to great goalie bet, one bad fwd bet and one ok fwd bet. 5th rd; one good even great considering round fwd bet. 7th rd; one good goalie bet, once again you could argue a great bet considering round.

This look like a spectacular draft from the desert dogs, just one bad bet and that’s out of USDP with their better than normal record of churning out NHLers, one ok bet and the rest good to great. A very interesting group to follow. Pretty heavy on forwards but they’ve lacked offensive talent for a while and already have their golden boy on D.

BOSTON

1 13 Boston Jakub Zboril D Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
1 14 Boston Jake DeBrusk L Swift Current Broncos [WHL]
1 15 Boston Zachary Senyshyn R Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
2 37 Boston Brandon Carlo D Tri-City Americans [WHL]
2 45 Boston Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson C Omaha Lancers [USHL]
2 52 Boston Jeremy Lauzon D Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
3 75 Boston Daniel Vladar G Kladno Jrs. (Czech Rep.)
4 105 Boston Jesse Gabrielle L Regina Pats [WHL]
6 165 Boston Cameron Hughes C U. of Wisconsin [Big-10]
7 195 Boston Jack Becker C Mahtomedi (Minn. H.S.)

1st rd; one great D bet, two ok to good fwd bets. 2nd rd; one good D bet, one ok fwd bet and another good D bet. 3rd rd; one great goalie bet. 4th rd; one bad fwd bet. 6th rd; one bad fwd bet. 7th rd; one good fwd bet.

Had some early reaches where it felt like they could have gotten better value or at least safer picks though both players do have serious upside. Did very well in the 2nd and 3rd round, took the foot off the gas a bit and then finished with a good last rounder. Up and down draft but all in all pretty good.

BUFFALO

1 2 Buffalo Jack Eichel C Boston University [H-East]
2 51 Buffalo Brendan Guhle D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
4 92 Buffalo Will Borgen D Moorhead (Minn. H.S.)
5 122 Buffalo Devante Stephens D Kelowna Rockets [WHL]
6 152 Buffalo Giorgio Estephan C Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL]
7 182 Buffalo Ivan Chukarov D Minnesota Wilderness [NAHL]

1st rd; one excellent fwd bet. 2nd rd; one good D bet. 4th rd; one ok D bet. 5th rd; one ok maybe even good D bet. 6th rd, one bad fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad fwd bet.

A bit uninspired in the later rounds but any draft where you walk away with a possible franchise center and a couple of solid D bets is a good draft. I like their second round pick of Guhle.

CALGARY

2 53 Calgary Rasmus Andersson D Barrie Colts [OHL]
2 60 Calgary Oliver Kylington D Farjestads BK Karlstad [SweHL]
5 136 Calgary Pavel Karnaukhov L Calgary Hitmen [WHL]
6 166 Calgary Andrew Mangiapane L Barrie Colts [OHL]
7 196 Calgary Riley Bruce D North Bay Battalion [OHL]

2nd rd; two great D bets. 5th rd; one good fwd bet. 6th rd; one great fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad D bet.

They didn’t have a lot of picks but outside of a stray into big and clumsy in the last round they really killed it. Three great bets with no first rounders is exceptional. And two of my favorite Swedish prospects as well. Freaking Flames.

CAROLINA

1 5 Carolina Noah Hanifin D Boston College [H-East]
2 35 Carolina Sebastian Aho R Karpat [SM-liiga]
4 93 Carolina Callum Booth G Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]
4 96 Carolina Nicolas Roy C Chicoutimi Sagueneens [QMJHL]
5 126 Carolina Luke Stevens L Noble/Greenough (Mass. H.S.)
5 138 Carolina Spencer Smallman R Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
6 156 Carolina Jake Massie D Kimball Union (N.H. H.S.)
6 169 Carolina David Cotton C Cushing Academy (Mass. H.S.)
7 186 Carolina Steven Lorentz C Peterborough Petes [OHL]

1st rd; one great D bet. 2nd rd; one good fwd bet. 4th rd; one ok goalie bet and one bad fwd bet. 5th rd; two bad fwd bets. 6th rd; one ok D bet and one good fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad fwd bet.

Got Noah Hanifin but outside of an interesting USHS pick it looks kind of flat after the first two rounds. They clearly don’t buy into my model.

CHICAGO

2 54 Chicago Graham Knott L Niagara IceDogs [OHL]
3 91 Chicago Dennis Gilbert D Chicago Steel [USHL]
4 121 Chicago Ryan Shea D Boston College High (Mass. H.S.)
5 151 Chicago Radovan Bondra R Kosice HC [Slovak]
6 164 Chicago Roy Radke R Barrie Colts [OHL]
6 181 Chicago Joni Tuulola D HPK Hameenlinna [SM-liiga]
7 211 Chicago John Dahlstrom R Frolunda Jrs. (Sweden)

2nd rd; one bad fwd bet. 3rd; one good D bet. 4th rd; one ok to good fwd bet. 5th rd; one good to great fwd bet. 6th rd; one bad fwd bet and one good D bet. 7th rd; one good fwd bet.

Ok draft considering the lack of high picks and made a good bet with the last pick of the draft. A couple of bad bets in the quest for size up front though.

COLORADO

1 10 Colorado Mikko Rantanen R TPS Turku [SM-liiga]
2 39 Colorado A.J. Greer L Boston University [H-East]
2 40 Colorado Nicolas Meloche D Baie-Comeau Drakkar [QMJHL]
3 71 Colorado Jean-Christophe Beaudin C Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
4 101 Colorado Andrei Mironov D Moscow Dynamo [KHL]
6 161 Colorado Sergei Boikov D Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL]
7 191 Colorado Gustav Olhaver C Rogle Jrs. (Sweden)

1st rd; one good fwd bet. 2nd rd; one bad fwd bet and one good D bet. 3rd rd; one good fwd bet. 4th rd; one good (older) D bet. 6th rd; one bad D bet. 7th rd; one bad fwd bet.

Mixed bag, three bad bets but two of them were in the two last rounds. So so draft tbh.

COLUMBUS

1 8 Columbus Zach Werenski D U. of Michigan [Big-10]
1 29 Columbus Gabriel Carlsson D Linkopings Jrs. (Sweden)
2 38 Columbus Paul Bittner L Portland Winterhawks [WHL]
2 58 Columbus Kevin Stenlund C HV71 Jrs (Sweden)
3 69 Columbus Keegan Kolesar R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
5 129 Columbus Sam Ruopp D Prince George Cougars [WHL]
5 141 Columbus Veeti Vainio D Blues Jrs. (Finland)
6 159 Columbus Vladislav Gavrikov D Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [KHL]
7 189 Columbus Markus Nutivaara D Karpat [SM-liiga]

1st rd; one great and one bad D bet. 2nd rd; two ok fwd bets. 3rd rd; one bad fwd bet. 5th rd; one ok to bad and one great D bet. 6th rd; one good D bet. 7th rd; one bad D bet.

A lot of D and sprinkled with a couple of big fwds on top. Truly a mixed bag. Feels like they threw some picks away.

DALLAS

1 12 Dallas Denis Gurianov R Tolyatti (Russia Jrs.)
2 49 Dallas Roope Hintz L Ilves Tampere [SM-liiga]
4 103 Dallas Chris Martenet D London Knights [OHL]
5 133 Dallas Joseph Cecconi D Muskegon Lumberjacks [USHL]
6 163 Dallas Markus Ruusu G JYP Jrs (Finland)

1st rd; one good to great fwd bet. 2nd rd; one good fwd bet. 4th rd; one ok D bet. 5th rd; one ok to bad D bet. 6th rd; one good goalie bet.

Solid draft for Dallas, a couple of projects but no real stupid picks.

DETROIT

1 19 Detroit Evgeny Svechnikov L Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL]
3 73 Detroit Vili Saarijarvi D Green Bay Gamblers [USHL]
4 110 Detroit Joren Van Pottelberghe G Linkopings Jrs. (Sweden)
5 140 Detroit Chase Pearson C Youngstown Phantoms [USHL]
6 170 Detroit Patrick Holway D Boston Advantage U18
7 200 Detroit Adam Marsh L Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]

1st rd; one great fwd bet. 3rd rd; one ok D bet. 4th rd; one ok goalie bet. 5th rd; one barely ok bet. 6th rd; one bad D bet. 7th rd; one good fwd bet.

The almost legendary and very hyped up Detroit scouting team had an ok to mediocre draft by the numbers with a strong start and finish with a bunch of longshots in between. With scouting and development as strong as the Wings I wouldn’t bet against the ok bets to make it and even the bad pick, Holway, has some intriguing things to him.

EDMONTON

1 1 Edmonton Connor McDavid C Erie Otters [OHL]
4 117 Edmonton Caleb Jones D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
5 124 Edmonton Ethan Bear D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
6 154 Edmonton John Marino D South Shore Kings [USPHL-Pr]
7 208 Edmonton Miroslav Svoboda G Trinec Jrs. (Czech Rep.)
7 209 Edmonton Ziyat Paigin D Kazan Ak-Bars [KHL]

1st rd; one excellent fwd bet (Ed. note: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT!). 4th rd; one pretty good D bet. 5th rd; one ok to good D bet. 6th rd; one good D bet. 7th rd; one ok goalie bet and one ok D bet.

Walking away with McDavid automatically makes this a great draft. The drafting after the first was ok considering they were all 4th round or later. No pick that blows you away but no real crappy one either, Oilers went D heavy after McDavid which makes the picks a little trickier to judge, they seem to all be pretty good skaters. If they can add Leveille “for free” I might stretch to call it a pretty good draft, but there might be some bias involved.

FLORIDA

1 11 Florida Lawson Crouse L Kingston Frontenacs [OHL]
3 77 Florida Samuel Montembeault G Blainville-Boisbriand Armada [QMJHL]
3 88 Florida Thomas Schemitsch D Owen Sound Attack [OHL]
4 102 Florida Denis Malgin C Zurich [Swiss-A]
5 132 Florida Karch Bachman L Culver Academy (Indiana H.S.)
6 162 Florida Chris Wilkie R Tri-City Storm [USHL]
7 192 Florida Patrick Shea C Kimball Union (Minn. H.S.)
7 206 Florida Ryan Bednard G Johnstown Tomahawks [NAHL]

1st rd; one bad fwd bet. 3rd rd; one bad goalie bet and one good D bet. 4th rd; one ok fwd bet. 5th rd; one bad fwd bet. 6th rd; one bad fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad fwd bet and one ok goalie bet.

This looks like a bad draft using my draft rules so they clearly have a completely different point of view. Will be interesting to compare this group to the group of undrafted kids I listed. Funnily enough the good D bet, Schmeitsch, was first on my undrafted list over guys I considered good bets as well because I had misspelled his name thus adding him twice.

LOS ANGELES

2 43 Los Angeles Erik Cernak D Kosice HC [Slovak]
3 74 Los Angeles Alexander Dergachyov C St. Petersburg Jrs. (Russia)
4 99 Los Angeles Austin Wagner L Regina Pats [WHL]
5 134 Los Angeles Matt Schmalz R Sudbury Wolves [OHL]
7 187 Los Angeles Chaz Reddekopp D Victoria Royals [WHL]
7 194 Los Angeles Matt Roy D Michigan Tech [WCHA]

2nd rd; one bad D bet. 3rd rd; one ok to good fwd bet. 4th rd; one bad fwd bet. 5th rd; one bad fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad and one almost ok D bet.

Yet another bad looking draft. LA goes big a lot of the time, my algorithm tends to benefit the smaller skill forwards and D so this is another interesting comparison.

MINNESOTA

1 20 Minnesota Joel Eriksson-Ek C Farjestads BK Karlstad [SweHL]
2 50 Minnesota Jordan Greenway L U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
4 111 Minnesota Ales Stezka G Liberic Jrs. (Czech Rep.)
5 135 Minnesota Kirill Kaprizov L Novokuznetsk Metallurg [KHL]
6 171 Minnesota Nick Boka D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
7 201 Minnesota Gustav Bouramman D Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
7 204 Minnesota Jack Sadek D Lakeville North (Minn. H.S.)

1st rd; one good to great fwd bet. 2nd rd; one ok fwd bet. 4th rd; one ok goalie bet. 5th rd; one great fwd bet. 6th rd; one bad D bet. 7th rd; one great and one ok D bet.

Real strong drafting from the Wild, got great value with several picks and the ok picks has interesting tools. Bouramman in the 7th feels like exceptional value for an OHL rookie putting up those numbers.

MONTREAL

1 26 Montreal Noah Juulsen D Everett Silvertips [WHL]
3 87 Montreal Lukas Vejdemo C Djurgardens Jrs. (Sweden)
5 131 Montreal Matthew Bradley C Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]
6 177 Montreal Simon Bourque D Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
7 207 Montreal Jeremiah Addison L Ottawa 67’s [OHL]

1st rd; one ok D bet. 3rd rd; one good fwd bet. 5th rd; one ok fwd bet. 6th rd; one good D bet. 7th rd; one bad fwd bet.

Very solid draft, didn’t go bad until an uninspired 7th round pick with mediocre OHL numbers but still not so bad it’s an awful pick that late, we’ve seen guys turning out in that realm before though not very often.

NASHVILLE

2 55 Nashville Yakov Trenin C Gatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]
3 85 Nashville Tom Novak C Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL]
4 100 Nashville Anthony Richard C Val d’Or Foreurs [QMJHL]
4 115 Nashville Alexandre Carrier D Gatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]
5 145 Nashville Karel Vejmelka G Pardubice Jrs. (Czech Rep.)
6 175 Nashville Tyler Moy F Harvard University [ECAC]
7 205 Nashville Evan Smith G Austin Bruins [NAHL]

2nd rd; one good fwd bet. 3rd rd; one great fwd bet. 4th rd; one good fwd bet and one good D bet. 5th rd; one good goalie bet. 6th rd; one bad fwd bet. 7th rd; one ok goalie bet.

Very strong drafting, Thomas Novak looks like a real sleeper and they got one of the more interesting goalies in the fifth round.

NEW JERSEY

1 6 New Jersey Pavel Zacha C Sarnia Sting [OHL]
2 42 New Jersey Mackenzie Blackwood G Barrie Colts [OHL]
3 67 New Jersey Blake Speers C Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
4 97 New Jersey Colton White D Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
6 157 New Jersey Brett Seney L Merrimack College [H-East]

1st rd; one great fwd bet. 2nd rd; one ok goalie bet. 3rd rd; one good fwd bet. 4th rd; one bad D bet. 6th rd; one good fwd bet.

Pretty good drafting with a limited number of bullets. Zacha will be a good one.

NY ISLANDERS

1 16 NY Islanders Mathew Barzal C Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
1 28 NY Islanders Anthony Beauvillier L Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]
3 82 NY Islanders Mitchell Vande Sompel D Oshawa Generals [OHL]
4 112 NY Islanders Parker Wotherspoon D Tri-City Americans [WHL]
5 147 NY Islanders Ryan Pilon D Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
6 172 NY Islanders AnDong Song D Lawrenceville (N.J. H.S.)
7 202 NY Islanders Petter Hansson D Linkopings Jrs. (Sweden)

1st rd; two good fwd bets. 3rd rd; one good D bet, or is he a fwd? 4th rd; one good D bet. 5th rd; one good D bet. 6th rd; one bad fwd bet. 7th rd; one ok D bet.

If I’m an Islander fan I’d be a bit pissed on the wasted sixth rounder but other than that really happy with the draft.

NY RANGERS

2 41 NY Rangers Ryan Gropp L Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
3 62 NY Rangers Robin Kovacs R AIK [Swe-1]
3 79 NY Rangers Sergey Zborovskiy D Regina Pats [WHL]
3 89 NY Rangers Aleksi Saarela C Assat Pori [SM-liiga]
4 113 NY Rangers Brad Morrison C Prince George Cougars [WHL]
4 119 NY Rangers Daniel Bernhardt R Djurgardens Jrs. (Sweden)
7 184 NY Rangers Adam Huska G Slovakia U-18

2nd rd; one bad fwd bet. 3rd rd; one good fwd bet, one ok D bet and one ok fwd bet. 4th rd; one bad and one ok to good fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad goalie bet.

Got some nice picks, I might have been overly harsh on the 3rd rounders but I told myself I wouldn’t change my grades when going through the picks team by team. They went big but unproductive with their first pick, felt like a bad idea in the second round.

OTTAWA

1 18 Ottawa Thomas Chabot D Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
1 21 Ottawa Colin White C U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2 36 Ottawa Gabriel Gagne R Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]
2 48 Ottawa Filip Chlapik C Charlottetown Islanders [QMJHL]
4 107 Ottawa Christian Wolanin F Muskegon Lumberjacks [USHL]
4 109 Ottawa Filip Ahl L HV71 Jrs. (Sweden)
5 139 Ottawa Christian Jaros D Lulea Jrs. (Sweden)
7 199 Ottawa Joel Daccord G Cushing Academy (Mass. H.S.)

1st rd; one good D bet and one good fwd bet. 2nd rd; one bad fwd bet that would’ve been ok at a later stage and one real good fwd bet. 4th rd; one ok D bet and one great fwd bet. 5th rd; one good D bet. 7th rd; one good goalie bet.

Quite simply one hell of a draft from Ottawa. Even the bad pick has some actual positives and considering the quality and numbers of picks they got in the draft I don’t even mind that bet either.

PHILADEPHIA

1 7 Philadelphia Ivan Provorov D Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
1 24 Philadelphia Travis Konecny C Ottawa 67’s [OHL]
3 70 Philadelphia Felix Sandstrom G Brynas Jrs. (Sweden)
3 90 Philadelphia Matej Tomek G Topeka Roadrunners [NAHL]
4 98 Philadelphia Samuel Dove-McFalls L Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
4 104 Philadelphia Mikhail Vorobyov C Ufa Jrs (Russia)
5 128 Philadelphia David Kase R Chomutov Jrs. (Czech Rep.)
6 158 Philadelphia Cooper Marody C Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL]
7 188 Philadelphia Ivan Fedotov G Nizhnekamsk Jrs (Russia)

1st rd; one great D bet and one good fwd bet. 3rd rd; one ok and one good goalie bet. 4th rd; Two bad fwd bets. 5th rd; one good fwd bets. 6th rd; one good fwd bet. 7th rd; one good goalie bet.

Philly went hard after goalies, three solid picks but as things are with goalies they may very well draw blank when all is said and done. With that in mind it’s a good thing they both had a strong first round and outside of a couple of mediocre mid round picks kept making nice bets throughout the draft.

PITTSBURGH

2 46 Pittsburgh Daniel Sprong R Charlottetown Islanders [QMJHL]
5 137 Pittsburgh Dominik Simon F Plzen HC [Czech]
6 167 Pittsburgh Frederik Tiffels F Western Michigan University [NCHC]
7 197 Pittsburgh Nikita Pavlychev C Des Moines Buccaneers [USHL]

2nd rd; one very good fwd bet. 5th rd; one good (older) fwd bet. 6th rd; one barely ok fwd bet. 7th rd; one ok fwd bet.

Pens had very few and late picks and did ok with it. Went off the board quite a bit and may very well go 0 for 4 but they clearly went for upside and not the safer picks.

SAN JOSE

1 9 San Jose Timo Meier R Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL]
2 31 San Jose Jeremy Roy D Sherbrooke Phoenix [QMJHL]
3 86 San Jose Mike Robinson G Lawrence Academy (Mass H.S.)
4 106 San Jose Adam Helewka L Spokane Chiefs [WHL]
5 130 San Jose Karlis Cukste D Riga Jrs. (Russia)
5 142 San Jose Rudolfs Balcers L Stavanger Oilers [Norway]
6 160 San Jose Adam Parsells D Wausau West (Wisc. H.S.)
7 190 San Jose Marcus Vela C Langley Rivermen [BCHL]
7 193 San Jose Jake Kupsky G Lone Star Brahmas [NAHL]

1st rd; one good fwd bet. 2nd rd; one good D bet. 3rd rd; one bad goalie bet. 4th rd; one bad fwd bet. 5th rd; one ok to good D bet and one good fwd bet. 6th rd; one ok D bet. 7th rd; one bad fwd bet and one good goalie bet.

Overall a strong draft, went off the grid with some of the picks and look like they got good value. I think there are question marks surrounding their top two picks, on the other hand they were both picked around where they were ranked before the draft, in some cases even lower especially in the case of Roy.

ST LOUIS

2 56 St. Louis Vince Dunn D Niagara IceDogs [OHL]
4 94 St. Louis Adam Musil C Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
4 116 St. Louis Glenn Gawdin C Swift Current Broncos [WHL]
5 127 St. Louis Niko Mikkola D Kalpa Jrs. (Finland)
5 146 St. Louis Luke Opilka G U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
6 176 St. Louis Liam Dunda L Owen Sound Attack [OHL]

2nd rd; one great D bet. 4th rd; two bad fwd bets. 5th rd; one ok D bet and one bad goalie bet. 6th rd; one bad fwd bet.

They started out well but after that it’s pretty awful. Looks like an Oiler draft from 6-7 years ago.

TAMPA BAY

2 33 Tampa Bay Mitchell Stephens C Saginaw Spirit [OHL]
2 44 Tampa Bay Matthew Spencer D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
3 64 Tampa Bay Dennis Yan L Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]
3 72 Tampa Bay Anthony Cirelli C Oshawa Generals [OHL]
4 118 Tampa Bay Jonne Tammela R KalPa Kuopio [SM-liiga]
4 120 Tampa Bay Mathieu Joseph R Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
5 150 Tampa Bay Ryan Zuhlsdorf D Sioux City Musketeers [USHL]
6 153 Tampa Bay Kris Oldham G Omaha Lancers [USHL]
6 180 Tampa Bay Bokondji Imama L Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]

2nd rd; one bad fwd bet and one ok to good D bet. 3rd rd; two good fwd bets. 4th rd; one good and one borderline ok fwd bet. 5th rd; one ok D bet. 6th rd; one ok goalie bet and one bad fwd bet.

A little all over the place, not a great draft with so many likely wasted picks but has some nice things and are likely to get something good out of it. Inconsistent you could say.

TORONTO

1 4 Toronto Mitch Marner C London Knights [OHL]
2 34 Toronto Travis Dermott D Erie Otters [OHL]
2 61 Toronto Jeremy Bracco R U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
3 65 Toronto Andrew Nielsen D Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL]
3 68 Toronto Martins Dzierkals L Riga Jrs. (Russia)
4 95 Toronto Jesper Lindgren D MODO Jrs. (Sweden)
5 125 Toronto Dmytro Timashov L Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]
6 155 Toronto Stephen Desrocher D Oshawa Generals [OHL]
7 185 Toronto Nikita Korostelev R Sarnia Sting [OHL]

1st rd; one great fwd bet. 2nd rd; one ok D bet and one great fwd bet. 3rd rd; one bad to ok D bet depending how bad the skating is and one good to great fwd bet. 4th rd; one good D bet. 5th rd; one good to great fwd bet. 6th rd; one bad D bet. 7th rd; one ok fwd bet.

Great draft, skill galore. The forward group looks better than the D where there are some skating concerns outside of Lindgren but still Toronto is doing very well overall.

VANCOUVER

1 23 Vancouver Brock Boeser R Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL]
3 66 Vancouver Guillaume Brisebois D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL]
4 114 Vancouver Dmitry Zhukenov C Omsk Jrs. (Russia)
5 144 Vancouver Carl Neill D Sherbrooke Phoenix [QMJHL]
5 149 Vancouver Adam Gaudette C Cedar Rapids RoughRiders [USHL]
6 174 Vancouver Lukas Jasek R Trinec Ocelari HC [Czech]
7 210 Vancouver Tate Olson D Prince George Cougars [WHL]

1st rd; one great fwd bet. 3rd rd; one ok D bet. 4th rd; one ok fwd bet. 5th rd; one bad D bet and one good fwd bet. 6th rd; one ok fwd bet. 7th rd; one bad maybe ok D bet.

Not much of a draft outside of a nice pick in Boeser. A lot of the picks are on the border of bad/ok bets.

WASHINGTON

1 22 Washington Ilya Samsonov G Magnitogorsk-2 (Russia Jrs.)
2 57 Washington Jonas Siegenthaler D Zurich [Swiss-A]
5 143 Washington Connor Hobbs D Regina Pats [WHL]
6 173 Washington Colby Williams D Regina Pats [WHL]

1st rd; one good goalie bet. 2nd rd; one good D bet. 5th rd; one good D bet. 6th rd; one ok D bet.

Did well with a small number of picks, betting on a goalie in the first round is always a little scary but it’s pretty obvious Washington is more focused on the now than building up their prospect pool. Added three nice D bets at least.

WINNIPEG

1 17 Winnipeg Kyle Connor L Youngstown Phantoms [USHL]
1 25 Winnipeg Jack Roslovic C U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2 47 Winnipeg Jansen Harkins C Prince George Cougars [WHL]
3 78 Winnipeg Erik Foley L Cedar Rapids RoughRiders [USHL]
4 108 Winnipeg Michael Spacek R Pardubice HC [Czech]
6 168 Winnipeg Mason Appleton F Tri-City Storm [USHL]
7 198 Winnipeg Sami Niku D JYP Jrs. (Finland)
7 203 Winnipeg Matteo Gennaro C Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]

1st rd; two great fwd bets. 2nd rd; ok to good fwd bet. 3rd rd; good fwd bet. 4th rd; one good fwd bet. 6th rd; one good fwd bet. 7th rd; one great D bet and one bad fwd bet.

Winnipeg finishes this draft review with what is one of if not the overall strongest draft of this year’s draft. Very heavy on fwd but great bets all over the board.

A lot of the Canadian teams doing well: Winnipeg, Toronto, Calgary, Montreal and Ottawa. Edmonton not too shabby either.  Arizona had a strong draft. And once again, when I say good or bad draft I mean good or bad based off of my earlier work, it doesn’t mean I have scouted every player drafted at enough length to make that claim, just can’t keep putting that asterisk in every time.

So that’s it for now, a lot of names and teams, oks and goods.

Overall, looking back at all the player assessments, I’m not too happy with the ok to good grades I’ve given some players as it lends itself to interpretation and gives me an opportunity to skew the stats to make a point in favor of my own algorithm but what’s done is done, I don’t feel like going through every player again. When these grades occur I’ll usually lean towards the lesser grade since a player in general is more likely to bust than succeed.

Also, the grades are just a starting point and this is just another step in trying to refine the algorithm, draft rules, whatever I decide to call it. As I mentioned the idea is to use this draft as a case study, both to see how I can improve the algorithm but also to see what we can gather from each player’s development path after being drafted. Is there a route that gets better results than others? How bad is rushing a player? Can you stay at a lower level for too long so that it hampers your development?

I’m also very interested in seeing how the undrafted group does, especially compared to the late round picks of the draft.  Down the road, watch for a followup on that very topic!

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