This is Part 3 of SwedishPoster’s look at the 2015 draft, focusing on a number of undrafted players.
The analysis is based on SwedishPoster’s draft analysis and guidelines from June.
Part 1 focused on the first three rounds.
Part 2 covered rounds 4 to 7. (Apologies to SwedishPoster for the long posting delay between part 2 and 3, I was preoccupied on some important matters both personally and professionally).
Forthcoming part 4 will look at overall team performance in the draft.
Following up from the two previous posts on the 2015 draft, I thought I’d add a few guys who I’ve written comments on before the draft who weren’t drafted. Additionally, there were several others I had done, but here I’ve only kept ok and good bets plus some interesting special cases.
This is the reason Tyler Soy is there but not Nathan Noel, both are bad bets by my PPG limits but since Soy got a shot at Oilers development camp I thought I’d keep him in there. I’m also well aware there are undrafted guys with nice numbers that I’ve missed, I hadn’t completed my list before the draft.
Anyway, will be interesting to see how this group measures up to some of the guys who actually were picked. They are numbered from 212 but don’t pay any attention to that it’s not how I rank them it’s just convenient.
- Vladimir Tkachev, 1.07 PPG in the QMJHL, overager +1, pretty good numbers considering he’s a semi-rookie. Last season he went 1.5 PPG in a 20 game spell as a true rookie, spectacular, it didn’t get him drafted but it got him signed and then not as Oiler fans are well aware. Listed as 5´10 which seems generous but he’s a great skater and what he pulled off last pre-season was impressive, exhibition games or not. Has scored well at every level. Good bet.
- Michael McNiven, 0.914 Sv% in the OHL, ROOKIE, did just play 24 games but these are good junior numbers. Don’t know if I’d pick him this high due to goalieness but interesting player. Good goalie bet.
- Tyler Soy, 0.91 PPG in the WHL, 0.40 GPG, the numbers don’t hit the mark though they aren’t awful. Still a bad bet, at least outside the very last stretch of the draft.
- Dante Salituro, 1.15 PPG in the OHL, 0.54 GPG, real nice numbers. Another tiny man at 5’8, exceptional skater from what I’ve found, the undersized kids who can skate aren’t doing too badly but they are ofc somewhat limited in certain aspects of the game. Still a good bet.
- Loik Leveille, 0.79 PPG in the QMJHL, 0.19 GPG, good numbers, built like a brick house with another brick house within. Skating? Good, though concerns have been raised about agility. Good bet.
- Sebastian Aho (the Swedish D-man), 0.22 PPG in the SHL, overager+1, 0.85 PPG in Swe U20 last season and also 5 points in 21 SHL games. Undersized for a D at 5’10. Skating? Great. Should’ve gotten drafted last year despite his size. I also think the NHL should have a rule that allows you to draft both Sebastian Aho’s with the same pick. With or without an extra Sebastian Aho a good bet.
- Kay Schweri, 1.28 PPG in the QMJHL, ROOKIE, really good rookie numbers, 5’10 with excellent skating and skill. Seems undervalued on a lot of lists. Good to great bet.
- Brayden Burke, 0.83 in the WHL, ROOKIE, good rookie numbers, another undersized player at 5’10. Good bet.
- Rodrigo Abols, 1.09 PPG in the MHL, 0.57 GPG, overager +1, got into 14 KHL games and had a 0.36 PPG, 0.36 in the MHL last season as a rookie, 6’3 and a good skater, looked pretty good for Latvia in the WHCs as well. Good bet. In the later rounds a great bet.
- Semyon Afonasyevsky, 0.87 PPG in the MHL, 0.53 GPG, ok numbers, had a solid MHL playoff as well, 8 goals in 13 games. Ok to good bet.
- Olle Alsing, 0.23 PPG in Allsvenskan, D, solid numbers against men. Overager +1, played U18 last season with a PPG around 1.0. Skating? Great. Good bet.
- Ken Appleby, 0.924 SV% in the OHL, overager +2, in his first draft year he was a rookie in the OHL with mediocre numbers, good numbers the last two seasons. Good goalie bet.
- Alex Barre-Boulet, 0.75 PPG in the QMJHL, ROOKIE out of midget, good rookie numbers. Tiny at 5’9. Ok late round gamble.
- Chris Birdsall, .914 Sv% in the USHL, solid numbers, a little small at 6’0. Ok goalie bet.
- Alec Broetzman, 2.24 PPG in USHS, over a GPG, 6’2, interesting player. Good bet.
- Richards Bukarts, 1.19 PPG in the WHL, overager +1, rookie last season out of Latvia, put up 0.83 PPG. 5’10 but great skater. Good bet.
- Lucas Carlsson, 0.43 PPG in Swe U20, D, one point in 16 SHL games. Skating? Good. Ok bet.
- Bob Carpenter, 1.05 PPG in the USHL, overager +1, ROOKIE out of USHS, last season 1.68 PPG in USHS but over a goal per game. Good bet.
- Jonathan Davidsson, 1.15 PPG in Swe U20, 5’11 speedster. Ok bet.
- Ryan Dmowski, 0.68 in the USHL, ROOKIE out of USHS. Ok bet.
- Lukas Ekeståhl Jonsson, 1.07 PPG in Swe U20 D, overager +1, 0.54 PPG last season in the same league. 5’10 but great skater. Might be worth a late round look. Ok bet.
- Stepan Falkovsky, 0.50 PPG in the MHL, D, 6’7 monster. Pretty good numbers. Can he skate? Don’t know, can’t find anything, but probably not. Still on size and numbers worth a late rounder if he isn’t absolutely useless on his skates. Ok bet.
- Casey Fitzgerald, 0.44 PPG with the USDP, D, solid numbers. 5’11 but a great skater. Good bet.
- Cavan Fitzgerald, 0.78 PPG in the QMJHL as a ROOKIE, overager +1 but august birthday. Very humble beginnings. Ok bet in the later rounds.
- Michael Fora, 0.53 PPG in the WHL, D, overager+1, ROOKIE out of Switzerland. 0.10 GPG. Solid rookie numbers. Can’t find anything on his skating. Sounds like a possibly good bet.
- Fredrik Forsberg, 1.0 PPG in Swe U20, Filips brother, 1.14 PPG last season in the U20 league, 7 games no points in the SHL this season. Good bet imo.
- Alexandre Fortin, 0.60 PPG in the QMJHL, ROOKIE out of midget. Ok bet.
- Matthew Freytag, 0.61 PPG in the USHL, ROOKIE out of USHS. Ok bet.
- Alexandar Georgiev, 0.920 in the Fin U20, ROOKIE out of Russia, overager +1, very good numbers what’s even more impressive is that he put up 0.917 in 14 games playing against men in the Fin-1. A little undersized at 6’0 but could be the late round goalie steal of this draft. Very good goalie bet.
- Lukas Haudum, 0.60 PPG in Swe U20, ROOKIE out of Austria, don’t have a lot on rookies in the euro leagues but this is an interesting kid to follow, I don’t think the Austrian junior league is very strong so he made a pretty big leap in competition and did ok. Tough to say he’s a good draft bet but an interesting case study.
- Christian Heljanko, 0.918 in Fin U20, undersized at 5’11 but good numbers. Ok goalie bet.
- Auguste Impose, 1.25 in Sui U20, got in a handful of games with the men’s team without adding any points. 5’10 skill player. Great name. Ok bet.
- Connor Ingram, 0.904 in the WHL as a ROOKIE is ok if we can consider rookie status for goalies which we maybe can. Great numbers prior to the WHL. Ok to good goalie bet.
- Matt Jurusik, 0.939 in the NAHL, ROOKIE out of T1EHL, had great numbers last season as well, another possible late round steal amongst goalies. Good goalie bet.
- Antti Kalapudas, 0.78 in Mestis(Fin-2) against men, overager+1, 1.34 PPG in Fin U20 last season, strange that he didn’t get picked. Good bet.
- Yegor Korshkov, 1.22 PPG in the MHL, overager+1, about half a point per game in the MHL as a rookie out of Kazakstan, 24 games and three points in the KHL this season, surprisingly quiet about this guy considering his numbers and the fact he’s 6’3. Looks a good bet to me.
- Trevin Kozlowski, 0925 Sv% in USHS, difficult to value how good of a number that is considering level of play but seems to carry good numbers from year to year. Ok goalie bet.
- Anton Krasotkin, 0.924 Sv% in the MHL, undersized at 5’10 but very good numbers, I think it’s unlikely he gets drafted if he hasn’t grown the last year or so. Still he’s less than an inch shorter than Jhonas Enroth. Ok goalie bet.
- Tanner Laczynski, 0.81 PPG in the USHL as a ROOKIE is good. Good bet.
- Yoshiro Hirano, 0.70 PPG in the Swe U20, overager +2, half a point per game in 6 games in Swe-2 against men. Doesn’t sound too impressive for a winger but what’s interesting with this kid is that he came from Japan where he’s considered the best prospect they’ve had, so a massive step up in quality this year and he actually lead his struggling U20 club in scoring as a rookie out of Japan. I don’t think he’s a future NHLer but an interesting player to follow.
So there you go. My full group of draftees et al.
History tells us that some of the guys who are considered good and even great skaters in scouting reports won’t be good enough at the next level. Some will despite reports of good skating be flat out terrible skaters. So in hindsight some good bets, on D in particular, will be awful bets when the truth on their skating reveals itself. This is where teams need a scout with a special eye for skating ability. It might actually have value to have scout purely focusing on skating, someone who knows what can be fixed with training and can evaluate how well it might translate to the next level. Teams may already have people like this, what do I know.