GUEST COLUMNIST: SwedishPoster reviews the 2015 draft (part 2: rounds 4 to 7)

This is Part 2 of SwedishPoster’s look at the 2015 draft, focusing on rounds 4 through 7.

The analysis is based on SwedishPoster’s draft analysis and guidelines from June.

Part 1 focused on the first three rounds.

Forthcoming parts 3 and 4 will cover undrafted players and team assessments respectively.

Review of NHL Draft 2015, Rounds 4 through 7

  1. Will Borgen, BUF: 0.79 in USHS, 0.33 in 18 games in the USHL. Nothing impressive about his USHS numbers but pretty solid translation to the USHL. Skating? What little I could find talks about an excellent skater. A little early in the first half of the draft but an ok bet.
  2. Callum Booth, CAR: 0.900 Sv% in the QMJHL, mediocre numbers though he had a strong rookie season last year with 0.925 in 25 games. Ok but unspectacular goalie pick.
  3. Adam Musil, STL: 0.59 PPG in the WHL, Frank’s other son plays forward but produces like he’s yet another D in the family. Only reason I see he’s picked here is genetics. Bad bet.
  4. Jesper Lindgren, TOR: 0.85 PPG in Swe U20, 0.15 GPG, got in to 4 SHL games and added an assist. Skating? Great. Physically very immature, late bloomer. Good bet.
  5. Nicolas Roy, CAR: 0.74 in the QMJHL, mediocre number and his GPG is pretty flat as well. 6’4 and I guess that’s where the hype comes from. Bad bet.
  6. Colton White, NJD: 0.33 PPG in the OHL is unimpressive though some explanation might be limited ice time on a deep team. Skates well and good size. Bad bet.
  7. Samuel Dove McFalls, PHI: 0.51 PPG in the QMJHL, crappy numbers. Bad bet.
  8. Austin Wagner,LAK: 0.64 PPG in the WHL, forward, not rookie, seems like a high spot, had just 2 points in 42 games last season so clearly has taken a big jump this season thus some of the same considerations you have for rookies might come in handy, there could maybe be an argument for him as a late round gamble if your scouts loves him. But the middle of the draft? Bad bet.
  9. Anthony Richard, NSH: 1.38 in the QMJHL, with a 0.65 GPG, great numbers, tiny kid, 5’9, quick skater. Good bet.
  10. Andrei Mironov, COL: 0.15 PPG in the KHL, overager +3, his first draft eligible season he had mediocre numbers in the MHL, has been a regular in the KHL since his draft+1 season which is impressive. Good bet since he’s a proven pro player but could they have picked him up as a free agent? Maybe not since there’s been some hype surrounding him.
  11. Denis Malgin, FLO: 0.5 PPG in the NLB, 0.35 in the NLA, good numbers against men. Tiny at 5’9 but fast. Will he overcome his lack of size? Ok bet.
  12. Chris Martenet, DAL: 0.24 PPG in the OHL, ROOKIE out of the USHL so a good NA league, the numbers are just ok. 6’7, massive defensive D, so you can see the allure. Skating? Ok, you see everything from good mobility to the always scary “moves well for a big man”. High bust potential but as it’s getting later in the draft these project picks are easier to agree with, still a lanky kid as well so if he fills out that size he’ll be a physical monster. Ok bet.
  13. Mikhail Vorobyov, PHI: 0.51 PPG in the MHL, not very impressive numbers, seems to be his first real MHL season and we don’t have a lot on the MHL so there could be forgiving factors but from what little we have bad bet.
  14. Jesse Gabrielle, BOS: 0.67 PPG in the WHL, flat numbers. Bad bet.
  15. Adam Helewka, SJS: 1.26 in the WHL this season, overager +2, in his draft year as a rookie he put up 0.45 PPG. Nothing really standing out. Bad bet, the kind of kid you pick up in free agency after the draft.
  16. Christian Wolanin, OTT: 0.73 in the USHL as an overager +2. Put up mediocre numbers in his draft year as a rookie. Ok bet but maybe more optimal in the last two rounds.
  17. Michael Spacek, WPG: 0.3 in the Cze-1, good number against men. Good bet.
  18. Filip Ahl, OTT: 1.24 PPG in Swe U20, 0.59 GPG, two points in fifteen SHL games. Impressive numbers in juniors, big at 6’4, good skater. Looks like a first rounder based on this but by eye he’s looked meh when I’ve seen him. Today we trust the numbers. Great bet.
  19. Joren van Pottelberghe, DET: 0.949Sv% in Swe U18, from Switerland came to Sweden two years ago, less impressive numbers in five Swe U20 games, overall good numbers everywhere he’s played, ok goalie bet.
  20. Ales Stezka, MIN: 0.907 Sv% in Cze U20, 0.929 in the playoffs, exceptional numbers in the U18 league and solid for the Czech U18 NT. Ok goalie bet.
  21. Parker Wootherspoon, NYI: 0.58 PPG in the WHL, 0.13 GPG, late b-day, great skater according to all reports. Good bet.
  22. Brad Morrison, NYR: 0.73 in the WHL, unimpressive numbers, pretty hyped up kid. Bad bet.
  23. Dmitri Zhukenov, VAN: 0.54 PPG in the MHL. Not very stellar numbers though from what I can tell he’s pretty much a rookie at that level. Has played very well with the Russian U18 team, 1.0 PPG in 16 games so there seems to be some talent here. Based on this I think you can argue it’s an ok bet.
  24. Alexandre Carrier, NSH: 0.81 PPG in the QMJHL, GPG 0.18, only 5’11. Skating? Very good to great, listed as a strength everywhere. Good bet.
  25. Glenn Gawdin, STL: 0.75 PPG in the WHL, unimpressive numbers from a non-rookie. Bad bet.
  26. Caleb Jones, EDM: 0.37 PPG with the USDP, 0.09 GPG, Seth’s brother doesn’t quite hit the mark, had a very good U18 WJCs though. An iffy bet on numbers alone though the great USDP track record speaks to his advantage, we’ve seen before that the USDP doesn’t lend itself to big numbers and when looking at the D out of USDP this year, it seems Caleb’s number aren’t that bad in comparison. Good to great skater according to sources. Pretty good mid-late round bet I’d say.
  27. Jonne Tammela, TBL: 1.04 PPG in Fin U20, four goals in 32 games against men in Finlands top league. Late birthday. Solid bet.
  28. Daniel Bernhardt, NYR: 1.39 PPG in Swe U20, overager+1, played U18 last season, late bloomer, good size, the question mark is how much of his numbers were carried by Vejdemo, or maybe it was the other way around. Ok to good bet.
  29. Mathieu Joseph, TBL: 0.71 PPG in the QMJHL, mediocre numbers. Semi-rookie I guess, arrived from midget midseason the year before so some leeway could be given but he still played 30 games in the Q that year. Bad bet but borderline ok.
  30. Ryan Shea, CHI: 1.59 in USHS, solid numbers at that level. Good skater. I like it as a longshot pick as we’re heading into the longshot rounds. Ok to good bet.
  31. Devante Stephens, BUF: 0.17 PPG in the WHL, ROOKIE out of the BCMML so the numbers are forgivable. Couldn’t find much on his skating. Hard to tell pick but certainly a longshot.
  32. Conor Garland, ARI: 1.93 PPG in the QMJHL, overager +1, 1.06 PPG as an almost rookie last season. 5’8 so he’s really small, but extremely skilled and a quick skater. Good bet in this spot you could argue it’s a great bet.
  33. Ethan Bear, 0.55 PPG in the WHL, 0.19 GPG, smaller D at 5’11. Skating? Reports go from solid to good, at his size you would like a great skater. As it’s getting later in the draft you have to be more forgiving and his scoring is solid. Ok to good bet but with question marks.
  34. Dmytro Timashov, TOR: 1.36 PPG in the QMJHL, ROOKIE, great numbers with that in mind, incredibly skilled, 5’10 and a good but maybe not amazing skater which might be the only real question mark, on the other hand that’s some amazing scoring for a rookie. Good to great bet in this spot.
  35. Luke Stevens, CAR: 1.26 PPG in USHS, not that impressive in lower level hockey. 6’4 so big kid but you want better scoring at that level. Bad bet.
  36. Niko Mikkola, STL: 0.62 in Fin U20, overager +1, D-man. Played U18 hockey last season and got in ten games in Fin-1 against men so trajectory is looking good and this might be a clever pick. Ok bet.
  37. David Kase, PHI: 0.47 PPG in the Cze-2, good numbers against men, dominated Cze U20 and put up 1.88 PPG over 8 games. Good bet.
  38. Sam Ruopp, CBJ: 0.41 in the WHL, overager +1, rookie the year before, with 0.25 PPG. Tough kid, question marks on skating. Ok to bad bet.
  39. Karlis Cukste, SJS: 0.27 in the MHL, came from the Latvian U20 league where he put up over PPG the year before. Looks like a clever pick but I know nothing about his skating. Ok to good bet.
  40. Matt Bradley, MON: 0.56 PPG in the WHL, ROOKIE, ok rookie numbers but below the 0.6 mark, this late in the draft I’m more forgiving and he came from midget. Ok bet.
  41. Karch Bachman, FLO: 1.34 PPG in USHS, not great numbers for that level, has some hype but strictly by numbers he’s unimpressive. Bad bet.
  42. Joseph Cecconi, DAL: 0.29 in the USHL as a semi-rookie, played 28 games the year before. His numbers certainly won’t blow you away, came from TIEHL U16 so very big step. Bad to ok bet.
  43. Matt Schmalz, LAK: 0.61 PPG in the OHL, overager +1, crappy numbers in his third year, massive at 6’6 which is what got him drafted. Bad bet.
  44. Kirill Kaprizov, MIN: 0.26 in the KHL, great numbers in the second best league in the world, dominant at the U18 level. Great bet.
  45. Pavel Karnaukhov, CGY: 0.61 PPG in the WHL, ROOKIE out of the MHL, ok rookie numbers. It seems as if the OHL and WHL rookies have a tougher time than the rookies in the QMJHL, don’t know if the Q teams have been better at finding talent or if it’s an easier adjustment. Good bet. Freaking Flames.
  46. Dominik Simon, PIT: 0.58 PPG in the Cze-1, overager +3. In his draft year he split time between CzeU18 where was over PPG and U20 where he was 0.62. Played well for the Cze WHC team this year, further along in his development than a lot of others players. You can always argue with these older kids who haven’t blown the doors off that you could wait and pick them up in free agency but I guess this gives the Pens some time to evaluate him without losing more than a fifth rounder. Good bet.
  47. Spencer Smallman, CAR: 0.85 PPG in the QMJHL, overager +1 but very late September birthday, mediocre numbers, will probably have a good year next year in the Q but bad bet as an NHLer.
  48. Christian Jaros, OTT: 0.52 in Swe U20, overager +1, 0.04 in 25 SHL games this season where he looked good, mainly played Swe U18 as a rookie out of Slovakia last season, tracks well. 6’3 RHD. Good skater. Good bet.
  49. Chase Pearson, DET: 0.46 in the USHL, ROOKIE FWD, humble beginnings, very late b-day. It’s late in the draft but his scoring is still a little flat. Barely ok bet.
  50. Veeti Vainio, CBJ: 1.05 PPG in Fin-U20, as a D-man, real good numbers, 0.31 GPG as well suggesting there’s some real offense here, 6’2, june birthday. Got into two games in the Fin-1 against men and collected an assist. Skating? Reports say excellent, smooth, agile and so on. Was surprisingly low on a lot of lists. Great bet.
  51. Rudolfs Balcers, SJS: 0.68 PPG in the Nor-1, against men. Now the Norwegian league isn’t a top euro league but his numbers are still impressive, best numbers ever for a junior player in Norway I read somewhere. Been killing it in Norwegian juniors as well as with the Latvian junior NT. Good bet. He’s an Oiler btw, Stavanger Oilers, would have been a nice touch if we picked him.
  52. Connor Hobbs, WAS: 0.4 PPG in the WHL, ROOKIE D, was jumping around a bit during the season but got his mojo going in the second half of the season when traded to Regina where he put up the majority of his points. Good bet.
  53. Carl Neill, VAN: 0.63 in the QMJHL, overager+1, in his first eligible season he had a 0.34 PPG. Skating is considered a weakness. Bad bet.
  54. Karel Vejmelka, NSH: 0.928 Sv% in the Cze-U20, overager +1, last season he was 0.930 in the same league, has the size everyone loves at 6’3, got into 7 games in the Cze-1, Sv% 0.922, 3 games in the Cze-2 Sv% 0.952. He’s been killing it everywhere the last three seasons, except with the Czech junior NT where he’s struggled, still impressive numbers. Good goalie bet, even great at this point in the draft.
  55. Luke Opilka, STL: 0.883 Sv% for the USDP, crappy numbers, hasn’t really had good numbers anywhere. Bad goalie bet which probably means he’s the next Hasek.
  56. Ryan Pilon, NYI: 0.76 PPG in the WHL, 0.16 GPG so question marks around how much offense we’ll see translate more of a good puckmover from the looks of it. Skating? Consensus seems to be good but not great. Good bet.
  57. Troy Terry, ANA: 0.67 PPG with the USDP, just a few days from being a 2016 draftee. The numbers aren’t that impressive at first look though there are a few interesting factors here, first of all the USDP has a very good record though they usually score better than this, but he does come straight from the TIEHL U16 so a big step this year, is a very late birthday, had a good U18 WJCs and still looks like he’s twelve. I think this is a potential surprise. If I’m being strict he’s barely an ok bet but I’ll call him a good longshot bet at this spot.
  58. Adam Gaudette, VAN: 0.60 in the USHL, ROOKIE out of USHS where he tore it up last season, scores precisely on my rookie mark, two-way rep. Good bet.
  59. Ryan Zuhlsdorf, TBL: 0.39 PPG in the USHL, ROOKIE out of USHS so for a rookie D that’s solid scoring. Nothing exceptional about his earlier scoring. Skating ability unknown. Ok bet.
  60. Radovan Bondra, CHI: 0.71 PPG in the Slovak-2 and 0.27 PPG in the Slo-1 against men. Ok numbers. Big at 6’5 and good skater, looks like he has nice tools for that elusive power forward. Good to great bet.
  61. Giorgio Estephan, BUF: 0.80 in the WHL, mediocre numbers, non-rookie. Bad bet.
  62. Kris Oldham, TBL: 0.908 in the USHL, ROOKIE out of NAHL, ok numbers. Ok goalie bet.
  63. John Marino, EDM: 0.57 PPG in the USPHL Premier, don’t think I’ve seen this league for a draftee before, started in 2012, looks like a pretty ambitious league. For a lower junior league the numbers are pretty unimpressive but doesn’t seem extremely high scoring and most players seems to be around 20-21. Skating? Excellent according to several reports. Guy with some hype from a tricky to judge league. As a late round flyer I think it’s a good bet.
  64. Stephen Desrocher, TOR: 0.35 PPG in the OHL, overager +1, not to impressive. Bad bet.
  65. Jake Massie, CAR: 0.59 in USHS, ROOKIE D-man out of the QJHL, a very low level, impossible to judge, extreme longshot from truly humble beginnings, I don’t give him much of a shot but who knows what happens with a kid like this in a good program, he’s heading the NCAA route. His numbers actually hits above the mark for a rookie D in the USHS. Ok bet.
  66. Brett Seney, NJD: 0.76 PPG in the NCAA, overager +1, first NCAA season, last season he put up 1.41 in the OJHL, which is so so, but his numbers this year suggests real upside. 5’9 so there are concerns but we’re in the 6th rd and his NCAA numbers makes this a fine bet imo.
  67. Cooper Marody, PHI: 1.12 PPG in the USHL, kicked in an extra gear when he switched team. Really solid numbers and surprising to see him this low. Fantastic name as well. Good bet.
  68. Vladislav Gavrikov, CBJ: 0.07 PPG in the KHL, overager +1, 0.27 PPG in the MHL last season. Had an exceptional WJCs but his junior numbers are nothing special at all. Very much a defense first D. Skating? Ok but not great, keeps up at the KHL level. Ok bet strictly by numbers but a spectacular WJCs kicks it up a notch especially considering round. Good bet.
  69. Adam Parsells, SJS: 0.96 PPG in USHS, slightly below my set limit, 6’6 so another gigantor. Skating unknown. Ok bet.
  70. Sergei Boikov, COL: 0.33 PPG in the QMJHL, overager +1, last season as a rookie out of Russia he put up 0.18 PPG. Bad bet.
  71. Chris Wilkie, FLO: 0.93 PPG in the USHL, overager +1, 0.67 the year before. Mediocre numbers. Bad bet.
  72. Markus Ruusu, DAL: 0.918 Sv% in Fin-U20, good numbers, good size, late birthday, played the U18 league to start the season and put up 0.920, nice trajectory. Good late round goalie bet.
  73. Roy Radke, CHI: 0.28 PPG in the OHL, ROOKIE fwd out of USHS where his numbers have been mediocre as well, hasn’t really scored at an impressive rate at any level. Bad bet.
  74. Cameron Hughes, BOS: 0.38 in the NCAA, mediocre numbers even for a draft eligible kid in college. Bad bet.
  75. Andrew Mangiapane, CGY: 1.53 PPG in the OHL, 0.63 GPG, overager +1, scored 0.75 PPG as an OHL rookie last season and that should have gotten him drafted last year. 5’10 but highly skilled and a great skater. Great bet. Freaking Flames.
  76. Fredrik Tiffels, PIT: 0.66 in the NCAA, overager +2 but freshman at the College level, ok numbers in that regard, his career has been all over the place, in his rookie season he put up a 0.50 PPG in the USHL as a rookie out of Germany which again is ok. His numbers don’t scream NHL career but he seems hell bent to make it. Still on numbers barely an ok bet but there’s some determination to be found in this one.
  77. Mason Appleton, WPG: 0.74 PPG in the USHL, ROOKIE out of USHS, overager +1 tore up the USHS last season, I like this pick. Good bet.
  78. David Cotton, CAR: 2.09 PPG in USHS, late birthday, 6’2 C who’s a good skater according to reports. Good bet.
  79. Patrick Holway, DET: 0.89 in the T1EHL 18, Wings really going off the grid on this one, mediocre numbers at this level even for a D though we don’t really have much of a standard from this league. This is obviously a scouting pick and not a numbers pick but numbers is what I have in this case. You could also ask yourself whether this is a necessary pick or if you should follow him another year to get a better grip, on the other hand he’s going to the USHL next season so you risk him getting more exposure. Still, bad bet.
  80. Nicholas Boka, MIN: 0.20 PPG in the USDP, another USDP pick with mediocre numbers, as stated before they have a history of lower numbers and a good record but 0.20 is starting to be below an absolute threshold, his earlier production isn’t that impressive either. Very late birthday but I’m still skeptical. Bad bet.
  81. Andong Song, NYI: 0.38 in USHS, bad numbers, he’s listed as both D and F but it’s bad either way. PR-stunt anyone? I’m sure he’s a great kid and I’d love for hockey to grow in China but this is not an NHL prospect. Bad bet.
  82. Colby Williams, WAS: 0.64 PPG in the WHL, overager +2, in his first draft year he was 0.32 as a rookie which is fine. Ok numbers. Ok bet.
  83. Lukas Jasek, VAN: 0.07 PPG in the Cze-1, over PPG in 24 U20 games, August birthday. His extreme low scoring in the men’s league is a bit worrying so some caution is adviced but he’s doing well enough in juniors. Ok bet.
  84. Tyler Moy, NSH: 0.73 in the NCAA, overager +2, played his second year in college, in his rookie year he went 0.36 as a USHL rookie. Mediocre numbers. Bad bet.
  85. Liam Dunda, STL: 0.17 in the OHL as a fwd, youngest player in the draft but those numbers just aren’t good. Bad bet.
  86. Simon Bourque, MON: 0.56 PPG in the QMJHL, 0.15 GPG. Skating? Great, seen as a strength in several reports, agile. Good bet.
  87. Steven Ruggiero, ANA: 0.23 in the USDP, another low scoring USDP kid, this one is a big one at 6’3. Hasn’t scored much in his younger years either. Bad bet.
  88. Garret Metcalf, ANA: 0.911 in the USHL, ROOKIE out of T1EHL 18, overager +1. Ok numbers. Has climbed quickly up the ladder in different leagues. Ok goalie bet.
  89. Bokondji Imama, TBL: 0.47 in the QMJHL, overager +1, 0.25 PPG last season. He’s a forward btw. Bad bet
  90. Joni Tuulola, CHI: 0.31 in the Fin-1, overager +1, good numbers against men, 0.51 PPG in Fin-U20 last season, once again ok numbers. Good bet.
  91. Ivan Chukarov, BUF: 0.80 in the NAHL, overager +2, 0.43 in the NPHL. This is the round to go walkabout but not sure this is a good walkabout. Bad bet.
  92. Erik Källgren, ARI: 0.936 Sv% in Swe U20, great numbers. Played three games in allsvenskan with so so numbers, 0.897. Small sample size and those junior numbers are spectacular enough to make this a good in this round even great goalie bet.
  93. Adam Huska, NYR: 0.900 Sv% in Slo-2, against men but just so so numbers, had 0.866 in 6 USHL games which is bad. Hasn’t had very good numbers most of his junior career. Bad goalie bet.
  94. Nikita Korostlev, TOR: 0.96 PPG in the OHL, second season in the league for the Russian who’s played in Canada for years. Barely misses the PPG limit. If I’m strict it’s a bad bet. Ok bet as we’re getting deeper in the draft.
  95. Steven Lorentz, CAR: 0.63 PPG in the OHL, overager +1. 0.28 PPG last season as a rookie. Mediocre numbers. Bad bet.
  96. Chaz Reddekopp, LAK: 0.29 PPG in the WHL, his numbers aren’t suggesting a great player but he seems to be solid everywhere he goes. In the 7th I’m ok with these kinds of unspectacular saw him good picks and he has a fantastic name but by my algorithm he doesn’t quite make it and there aren’t any really forgiving factors on the surface. Bad bet.
  97. Ivan Fedotov, PHI: 0.911 in the MHL, ok numbers, what’s more impressive is his GAA of 1.95 which is really good in a junior league. 6’6 so a really big kid. Good goalie bet.
  98. Markus Nutivaara, CBJ: 0.06 PPG in the Fin-1, overager +3, his draft year he went 0.76 in Fin U18, late bloomer but when you pick an overager I’d rather see more, couldn’t they have followed him, kept in contact and picked him up in free agency later on if he keeps developing, unlike Mironov and Simon he’s not really a hot commodity. Bad bet.
  99. Marcus Vela, SJS: 0.92 PPG in the BCHL, grabbing a play from the old Oiler drafting playbook, unspectacular numbers. Bad bet.
  100. Gustav Olhaver, COL: 0.29 PPG in the Swe U20, crappy numbers for a forward, 6’6 and hasn’t really gotten his body together, spent the majority of last season in Swe U18, but at this point in time he doesn’t look like a future NHLer. Bad bet.
  101. Patrick Shea, FLO: 1.18 in USHS as a forward isn’t very good. Bad Bet.
  102. Jake Kupsky, SJS: 0.911 in the NAHL, overager +1, ROOKIE out of USHS where he put up a crazy 0.944 last season. Good late round goalie bet.
  103. Matthew Roy, LAK: 0.25 PPG in the NCAA, overager +2 but in his freshman year. His first draft year he went 0.80 in T1EHL 18. Mediocre numbers but ok NCAA season. Almost ok bet.
  104. Jack Becker, BOS: 2.04 in USHS, GPG of 0.96. Near 3 PPG in playoffs. 6’3 right-shooting C. Good bet.
  105. Riley Bruce, CGY: 0.06 PPG in the OHL, terrible numbers. 6’6, bad skater. Bad bet. Freaking Finally Flames.
  106. Nikita Pavlychev, PIT: 0.38 PPG in the USHL, ROOKIE out of AYHL 18U, where you ask? Me too. 6’7 center who apparently is a good skater. This is a pretty good 7th rd walkabout imo. Ok bet.
  107. Sami Niku, WPG: 0.64 PPG in Fin-2 playing against men, real good numbers for a D, 0.7 PPG in the Fin U20 last season. Good skater. Great bet.
  108. Joey Daccord, OTT: 0.933 PPG in USHS, overager +1(august birthday) has had impressive numbers throughout his HS career. Good size. Good goalie bet.
  109. Adam Marsh, DET: 0.73 PPG in the QMJHL, ROOKIE out of the HPHL U16 so very humble beginnings, making his numbers pretty impressive. Good bet.
  110. Gustav Bouramman, MIN: 0.66 in the OHL, 0.07 GPG, ROOKIE out of Sweden where he had a hard time finding a regular spot on the U20 team last season though he put up great U18 numbers. Very impressive numbers, trajectory pointing skywards. Skating? Good to great. Great bet.
  111. Petter Hansson, NYI: 0.89 PPG in Swe U20 as a D, overager +1, bad numbers last year, has just exploded this season, based on that development curve a nice pick at this stage in the draft. Ok bet.
  112. Matteo Gennaro, WPG: 0.43 PPG in the WHL. Bad fwd numbers. Bad bet.
  113. Jack Sadek, MIN: 1.0 PPG in USHS, D-man. Ok numbers, don’t know about his skating. Ok bet.
  114. Evan Smith, NSH: 0.923 in the NAHL, ROOKIE out of NAPHL, solid Sv%, 6’6. Ok goalie bet.
  115. Ryan Bednard, FLO: 0.913 in the NAHL, ROOKIE, ok numbers, 6’4. Ok goalie bet.
  116. Jeremiah Addison, MON: 0.75 in the OHL, unimpressive numbers. Bad bet.
  117. Miroslav Svoboda, EDM: 0.917 in the Cze U20, overager +2, 0.919 in Cze U18 in his draft year, last season he went 0.937 in Cze U20. Has gotten a few chances against men with some struggles but also some good stretches. Ok goalie bet.
  118. Ziyat Paygin, EDM: 0.03 PPG in the KHL, overager +2, no offense at all, still a regular shift in the second best league in the world is good, in his draft year he went 0.26 in the MHL so barely ok but it was his first year at that level, 6’7 and from what I remember from the WJC a surprisingly agile skater. Pure defensive D. Fine as a late rounder. Ok bet.
  119. Tate Olsen, VAN: 0.35 PPG in the WHL, doesn’t quite hit my D numbers, just an ok skater from what I could find. Bad bet, maybe ok as a late pick.
  120. John Dahlström, CHI: 1.25 in the Swe U20, 0.71 GPG, real good numbers. Ok size at 6’0. Good bet.

So there you have it, the draft class of 2015. One thing that strikes you is how many who actually fulfill the basic criteria. Remember that 59% of the forwards and 42% of the D who busted out of the two first rounds didn’t fulfill these basic criteria I set up. Either this is a really strong draft or the PPG limits do a very good job in finding the bad bets. Probably a little bit of both. I’d argue that the idea that this draft is strong at the top, but mediocre after the first fifteen picks doesn’t really add up when looking at the PPGs. We’d of course get a better picture of the strength of this draft by looking up former draft years in a similar fashion but if I ever get down to it it’ll be pretty far down the road, it gets a bit soul draining after a while of looking through the draft player by player…

It’s also pretty clear that a lot of guys who do fulfill the criteria I set up will likely bust anyway, which rhymes with what we’ve seen before regarding this point of view: it does a good job weeding out the real bad but a lot of busts still slip through the cracks.

I have an idea to use this draft as a case study and follow the players with this write up as a basis to see if we can recognize anything that would help us separate the good from the bad even further and maybe with an eye on optimal development paths as well. Ideally I’ll follow this group for at least five years but we’ll see if it’s still relevant/interesting by then.


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